NBA - 701 Boston Celtics @ 702 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #1 & #2
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Exactly a week ago, I had a regular play w/ PHI+4 against the Celtics on the road and I’ve watched live that game, so I have a perfect feel for this contest…
PHI eventually won the game w/ a buzzer beat shot from Evan Turner, and I really saw plenty of BOS players pissed off as they really wanted the win the game – something “rare” for a tanking team, so we can be sure that they want some revenge for tonight.
Why I had a play on PHI+4?
Well, the Celtics were playing @b2b spot, and they simply didn't have any decent “guards” available for that game: R. Rondo had his regular rest @b2b games, Avery Bradley was injured, and so BOS played w/ rookie P. Pressey @PG and w/ J. Bayless as being his backup… the outcome was a pure disaster for the team: Pressey & Bayless combined to shoot 5-20 FG and had 3 assists vs. 7 TO’s, yikes!
However, everything will change for tonight…
Avery Bradley returned to action last game vs. ORL and was sharp by playing 33 minutes. Rondo doesn't have any time-limit now and he completely dominated the Magic w/ 9-11 FG, 19pts, 10 assists and 6 rebounds. This 76ers’ team is prone to commit TO’s – they have committed 26 TO’s in their last game vs. BKN and Rondo & Bradley are one of the best combo guards unit pressuring the ball handler.
It’s one thing playing vs. Pressey and J. Green on the backcourt w/ Bayless being the main backup like in that game, and playing vs. Rondo & Bradley like it will happen tonight.
Obviously, the game will be a fast paced contest (the first one despite the low scoring outcome was a pure run and gun game) and the Celtics will torch the 76ers in transition off TO’s.
I expect BOS to defeat with some ease PHI tonight in a high scoring game and therefore, I’m taking Boston as my Triple Dime Play & Over as my Single Dime Play.
PHI eventually won the game w/ a buzzer beat shot from Evan Turner, and I really saw plenty of BOS players pissed off as they really wanted the win the game – something “rare” for a tanking team, so we can be sure that they want some revenge for tonight.
Why I had a play on PHI+4?
Well, the Celtics were playing @b2b spot, and they simply didn't have any decent “guards” available for that game: R. Rondo had his regular rest @b2b games, Avery Bradley was injured, and so BOS played w/ rookie P. Pressey @PG and w/ J. Bayless as being his backup… the outcome was a pure disaster for the team: Pressey & Bayless combined to shoot 5-20 FG and had 3 assists vs. 7 TO’s, yikes!
However, everything will change for tonight…
Avery Bradley returned to action last game vs. ORL and was sharp by playing 33 minutes. Rondo doesn't have any time-limit now and he completely dominated the Magic w/ 9-11 FG, 19pts, 10 assists and 6 rebounds. This 76ers’ team is prone to commit TO’s – they have committed 26 TO’s in their last game vs. BKN and Rondo & Bradley are one of the best combo guards unit pressuring the ball handler.
It’s one thing playing vs. Pressey and J. Green on the backcourt w/ Bayless being the main backup like in that game, and playing vs. Rondo & Bradley like it will happen tonight.
Obviously, the game will be a fast paced contest (the first one despite the low scoring outcome was a pure run and gun game) and the Celtics will torch the 76ers in transition off TO’s.
I expect BOS to defeat with some ease PHI tonight in a high scoring game and therefore, I’m taking Boston as my Triple Dime Play & Over as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 701 Boston Celtics (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 707 Portland Trail Blazers @ 708 New York Knicks
Play #3
POR is struggling a bit right now w/ 1-3 SU in the last 4 games and the main culprit IMO for this bad run is related w/ the lack of production of their offense. In those 3 losses, POR had a subpar avg. Off. Rtg. = 92.3 vs. 113.8 of their season average.
They need L. Aldridge to be effective down low, and especially, they need their Pick n Roll game to be sharp and this has been a problem for them lately. However, these struggles are easy to understand IMO, as POR simply has faced some elite defensive teams vs. Pick n Roll's and obviously it's tougher to have great offensive numbers.
Defensive P&R Ball Handler rankings of POR’s L4 opponents:
GSW #8
MEM #25 (but w/ Gasol back, they are “another” team)
TOR #3
WAS #2
So, what about the Knicks’ P&R defense? You might ask… Well, they are dead last in the league by allowing 0.89 PPP, and they are coming from a game in which Brandon Knight completely torched them w/ 25 points & 7 assists, enough said...
We can expect D. Lillard and POR’s backcourt to completely torch NYK’s backcourt unit of Felton, Prigioni, JR Smith and Tim Hardaway JR. Obviously, NYK will have some edge on the offensive end vs. POR poor defense but I expect Batum to be a tough matchup for Carmelo Anthony, while NYK’s on and off the court problems have been another distraction for the team: Amare Stoudemire wants to play more minutes & Mike Woodson’s firing saga is returning to action…
I’m taking POR tonight as my Single Dime Play.
They need L. Aldridge to be effective down low, and especially, they need their Pick n Roll game to be sharp and this has been a problem for them lately. However, these struggles are easy to understand IMO, as POR simply has faced some elite defensive teams vs. Pick n Roll's and obviously it's tougher to have great offensive numbers.
Defensive P&R Ball Handler rankings of POR’s L4 opponents:
GSW #8
MEM #25 (but w/ Gasol back, they are “another” team)
TOR #3
WAS #2
So, what about the Knicks’ P&R defense? You might ask… Well, they are dead last in the league by allowing 0.89 PPP, and they are coming from a game in which Brandon Knight completely torched them w/ 25 points & 7 assists, enough said...
We can expect D. Lillard and POR’s backcourt to completely torch NYK’s backcourt unit of Felton, Prigioni, JR Smith and Tim Hardaway JR. Obviously, NYK will have some edge on the offensive end vs. POR poor defense but I expect Batum to be a tough matchup for Carmelo Anthony, while NYK’s on and off the court problems have been another distraction for the team: Amare Stoudemire wants to play more minutes & Mike Woodson’s firing saga is returning to action…
I’m taking POR tonight as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Portland Trail Blazers (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 715 Phoenix Suns @ 716 Houston Rockets
Play #5
PHX played horribly last night vs. CHI as their A/TO ratios have been truly horrible as of late: last night 12 assists vs. 21 TO’s but even in their easy win vs. CHA in the previous game, they had a subpar 13/13 A/TO ratio.
This spot of b2b game isn’t easy for them but what really matters is that HOU is a horrible matchup for PHX! PHX offense really needs to be efficient in both P&R BH plays (w/ Dragic) and in transition! The problem is that HOU defense is ranked #6 defending P&R BH plays & #1 defending transition.
HOU had 3 days off to rest and prepare this contest and they won’t take lightly this good Suns team because early on the season, PHX went @HOU and beat them outright w/ 97-88! In that game, Eric Bledsoe was the MVP of the game by playing 40minutes and having 7-14 FG, 20 pts and 7 assists but especially, he guarded J. Harden that had his worst offensive game of the season w/ 3-17 FG & 5 TO’s! Also that Jeremy Lin & C. Parsons didn’t play that game and so, tonight’s game will be another completely story favoring the Rockets in every aspect of the game. Howard will dominate down low, while this time, HOU backcourt will dominate PHX’s backcourt unit.
This spot of b2b game isn’t easy for them but what really matters is that HOU is a horrible matchup for PHX! PHX offense really needs to be efficient in both P&R BH plays (w/ Dragic) and in transition! The problem is that HOU defense is ranked #6 defending P&R BH plays & #1 defending transition.
HOU had 3 days off to rest and prepare this contest and they won’t take lightly this good Suns team because early on the season, PHX went @HOU and beat them outright w/ 97-88! In that game, Eric Bledsoe was the MVP of the game by playing 40minutes and having 7-14 FG, 20 pts and 7 assists but especially, he guarded J. Harden that had his worst offensive game of the season w/ 3-17 FG & 5 TO’s! Also that Jeremy Lin & C. Parsons didn’t play that game and so, tonight’s game will be another completely story favoring the Rockets in every aspect of the game. Howard will dominate down low, while this time, HOU backcourt will dominate PHX’s backcourt unit.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 Houston Rockets (-7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 719 Milwaukee Bucks @ 720 Denver Nuggets
Play #6
This Nuggets offense w/ Lawson on the court is a different beast and suddenly, DEN offense that struggled to be efficient vs. CHA & TOR (94.8 & 93.6 Off. Rtg), exploded in the last game vs. LAC by scoring 116 points & 118 Off. Rtg.
He will play tonight and I really expect DEN to play at their style and score easily against the Bucks tonight. MIL has been all season long a awful perimeter defense but their interior defense was relatively solid by allowing almost 60% FG at the rim but lately, MIL interior is simply gone – L10 games allowing 66% FG at the rim & L5 games = almost 70% FG! This is good news for a DEN offense that attacks the rim in almost every possession…
MIL has been more competitive lately simply because their offense is now showing some signs of life: L4 games = 111 Off. Rtg., good transition numbers w/ 20, 16, 12 and 17 fast break pts scored and B. Knight has been great. I expect him to keep playing well vs. poor DEN backcourt defense and w/ DEN running and gunning since the start, my fair line for this contest is 214 points and so, I’m taking the Over in here.
He will play tonight and I really expect DEN to play at their style and score easily against the Bucks tonight. MIL has been all season long a awful perimeter defense but their interior defense was relatively solid by allowing almost 60% FG at the rim but lately, MIL interior is simply gone – L10 games allowing 66% FG at the rim & L5 games = almost 70% FG! This is good news for a DEN offense that attacks the rim in almost every possession…
MIL has been more competitive lately simply because their offense is now showing some signs of life: L4 games = 111 Off. Rtg., good transition numbers w/ 20, 16, 12 and 17 fast break pts scored and B. Knight has been great. I expect him to keep playing well vs. poor DEN backcourt defense and w/ DEN running and gunning since the start, my fair line for this contest is 214 points and so, I’m taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Over 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 705 San Antonio Spurs @ 706 Washington Wizards
Play #4 & #7
I’ve watched this afternoon WAS vs. POR 3rd quarter and WAS defense was just phenomenal and fortunately we’ve cashed our Triple Dime Play w/ Under. POR eventually finished the game w/ 2-16 FG 0.27 PPP in P&R ball handler plays and this says it all about how good WAS perimeter defense has been lately. Please note that, WAS held OKC & POR – two of the best offensive teams in the league to just 81 and 90 pts w/ 88.4 & 98.4 Off. Rtg!
This great P&R BH defense from WAS is key for tonight because by putting some pressure on Tony Parker, the Spurs perimeter offense is struggling to create good looks without Manu Ginobili & Leonard. SAS was able to won their L2 games but they had some serious problems vs. shorthanded SAC (without Cousins) & NO (without several key players). They defeated NO behind a huge 4th quarter by Duncan & Parker that finished the game w/ Ducan 10-20 FG for 21 pts while Parker went 12-24 FG, 8-9 FT for 32 pts.
However, they have faced Ajinca/Stiemsma and Roberts/Curry as their individual matchups = too easy!
I expect WAS defense to be a big factor for tonight. D. Green & T. Splitter have returned to action, so SAS defense will be decent as well and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. My sides fair line for this contest is WAS-1, so basically the wrong team is favored in here and I’m taking WAS as well.
This great P&R BH defense from WAS is key for tonight because by putting some pressure on Tony Parker, the Spurs perimeter offense is struggling to create good looks without Manu Ginobili & Leonard. SAS was able to won their L2 games but they had some serious problems vs. shorthanded SAC (without Cousins) & NO (without several key players). They defeated NO behind a huge 4th quarter by Duncan & Parker that finished the game w/ Ducan 10-20 FG for 21 pts while Parker went 12-24 FG, 8-9 FT for 32 pts.
However, they have faced Ajinca/Stiemsma and Roberts/Curry as their individual matchups = too easy!
I expect WAS defense to be a big factor for tonight. D. Green & T. Splitter have returned to action, so SAS defense will be decent as well and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. My sides fair line for this contest is WAS-1, so basically the wrong team is favored in here and I’m taking WAS as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
ADDED PLAY:
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Washington Wizards (+2) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada
NBA - 721 Toronto Raptors @ 722 Sacramento Kings
Play #8
This will be a fun game to watch just because all the Gay-trade stuff, so basically, both teams will be fired up for this contest.
TOR as a team is more cohesive, and their defense is better than SAC even though SAC P&R ball handler defense by being ranked #8 is a huge factor for this contest b/c TOR offense relies heavily on P&R’s.
The X factor for this contest has a name and the name is D. Cousins…
While I think that the backcourt battle is almost a 50/50 proposition w/ K. Lowry being a bit banged up, the same thing won’t happen on the frontcourt where D. Cousins will dominate down low.
Cousins simply toyed w/ J. Noah in SAC’s last game, and J. Valanciunas isn’t skilled enough to defend him right now… They’ve only gone head-to-head once Cousins finished the game w/ 25 pts and 13 rebs while Valanciunas had 3 pts & 3 reb…
My fair line for this contest is SAC-3 and so, we have the proper edge to pull the trigger w/ SAC in here.
TOR as a team is more cohesive, and their defense is better than SAC even though SAC P&R ball handler defense by being ranked #8 is a huge factor for this contest b/c TOR offense relies heavily on P&R’s.
The X factor for this contest has a name and the name is D. Cousins…
While I think that the backcourt battle is almost a 50/50 proposition w/ K. Lowry being a bit banged up, the same thing won’t happen on the frontcourt where D. Cousins will dominate down low.
Cousins simply toyed w/ J. Noah in SAC’s last game, and J. Valanciunas isn’t skilled enough to defend him right now… They’ve only gone head-to-head once Cousins finished the game w/ 25 pts and 13 rebs while Valanciunas had 3 pts & 3 reb…
My fair line for this contest is SAC-3 and so, we have the proper edge to pull the trigger w/ SAC in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Sacramento Kings (PK) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 723 Miami Heat @ 724 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #9
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
This is the kind of game where the Clippers will really miss Chris Paul...
Truth be told, LAC offense has been spectacular without CP3 as their P&R offense is super sharp w/ LAC’s guards being effective. Their transition offense has been great and lately, they have struggle to hit their outside shots w/ L4 games = 22-72 just 30.5%.
Here’s the deal for tonight: I expect MIA’s #1 ranked P&R ball handler defense to be a truly problem for LAC defense. LAC has faced the Wizards (that is ranked #2) last week and they have committed 19 TO’s and the game was a pure ball game w/ 2 minutes to go even tough WAS was playing @b2b spot!
On the other side of the ball, D. Wade is playing and basically, LAC won’t have an answer to slow him down. Please don’t tell me that JJ Redick or Jamal Crawford will be able to stop D. Wade’s penetrations to the basket…
Finally, Chris Bosh is a tough matchup for D. Jordan because Jordan will have to go outside in order to “stop” Bosh and he is not comfortable doing that.
This is a great opportunity for MIA to make a statement on National TV and without CP3, I expect their aggressive ball handler defense to be the X factor in this contest while my fair line have them being the real favorites.
Truth be told, LAC offense has been spectacular without CP3 as their P&R offense is super sharp w/ LAC’s guards being effective. Their transition offense has been great and lately, they have struggle to hit their outside shots w/ L4 games = 22-72 just 30.5%.
Here’s the deal for tonight: I expect MIA’s #1 ranked P&R ball handler defense to be a truly problem for LAC defense. LAC has faced the Wizards (that is ranked #2) last week and they have committed 19 TO’s and the game was a pure ball game w/ 2 minutes to go even tough WAS was playing @b2b spot!
On the other side of the ball, D. Wade is playing and basically, LAC won’t have an answer to slow him down. Please don’t tell me that JJ Redick or Jamal Crawford will be able to stop D. Wade’s penetrations to the basket…
Finally, Chris Bosh is a tough matchup for D. Jordan because Jordan will have to go outside in order to “stop” Bosh and he is not comfortable doing that.
This is a great opportunity for MIA to make a statement on National TV and without CP3, I expect their aggressive ball handler defense to be the X factor in this contest while my fair line have them being the real favorites.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 723 Miami Heat ML @ +110 / 2.10 on Betonline
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