NBA - 511 Golden State Warriors @ 512 Phoenix Suns
Play #4
It is confirmed that D. Lee & A. Bogut are OUT for tonight, and the absence of Lee is especially important for tonight’s matchup…
The potential individual matchup between Lee & Frye is a complete mismatch favoring the offense for both players. David Lee would torch Frye down low while Frye’s long range shooting ability would be a problem for Lee that usually doesn’t like to “go outside”. D. Green will start @PF tonight, and Green is really an underrated defensive player as his mobility is better equipped to defend Frye.
On the other side, GSW’s without Lee is a mere “jump shooting” team. Against the Bulls in the last game, Curry & Thompson combined to score 56 totals points (55% of the team’s 102 points) and I expect PHX defense to be focused in both players.
I really liked the fact that PHX is coming from one of the worst defensive performances of the season @HOU (where HOU frontcourt really crushed them and we’ve won our play w/ HOU-7.5), because their mindset going for tonight’s game is focused on the defensive side of the basketball:
“We have to be more focused on defense,” said point guard Goran Dragic after Friday practice. “We’ve had a lot of defensive slippage and haven’t been playing well. Our rotations have been late and we need to challenge them and pressure the ball. The key is definitely going to be defense, be aggressive and pressure the ball.”
My fair line for this contest is 205 points, and so, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ Under.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 209 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NBA - 501 San Antonio Spurs @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #1
CHA enjoyed a really good 3-1 road trip vs. West. Conf. teams and they had 3 days off to rest and prepare tonight’s game. Their defense was the key for such good trip while their offense basically was all about Al Jefferson…
For this contest, Tim Duncan is available after missing last game’s @BKN and obviously, Al Jefferson will have a tough matchup tonight against him – SAS is a top 10 defensive team vs. post up plays!
On the other side, SAS is banged up and I expect CHA defense to be once again solid.
Both teams really need their Point Guards to excel on the offensive end, but both Kemba Walker and Tony Parker are banged up right now. Walker returned in the last game @GSW but he didn’t finished the game (cramps), while Parker has been banged up for quite some time now. Without Ginobili and w/ Parker banged up, SAS is lacking some creativity on the backcourt and their offense has “just” 105.1 Off. Rtg. L6 games vs. 112 season numbers.
My fair line for this contest is 190 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play.
For this contest, Tim Duncan is available after missing last game’s @BKN and obviously, Al Jefferson will have a tough matchup tonight against him – SAS is a top 10 defensive team vs. post up plays!
On the other side, SAS is banged up and I expect CHA defense to be once again solid.
Both teams really need their Point Guards to excel on the offensive end, but both Kemba Walker and Tony Parker are banged up right now. Walker returned in the last game @GSW but he didn’t finished the game (cramps), while Parker has been banged up for quite some time now. Without Ginobili and w/ Parker banged up, SAS is lacking some creativity on the backcourt and their offense has “just” 105.1 Off. Rtg. L6 games vs. 112 season numbers.
My fair line for this contest is 190 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Memphis Grizzlies @ 504 Atlanta Hawks
Play #2
MEM defense was just torched by the Mavericks excellent spread offense in the last game by allowing 110 points. DAL was able to explore MEM poor P&R defense to have 8-19 FG P&R Ball handler plays & 7-8 FG P&R Roll Man. Well, the Hawks don’t have Dirk Nowitzki on their roster, but they have somehow a similar spread offense w/ a terrific ball movement that will cause some problems @ MEM’s weak side defense.
Just look for ATL’s last game @NO… 29 of their FGM were assisted for a phenomenal 76% assist/rate! I expect Teague to use his speed advantage over N. Calathes while P. Millsap is a tough matchup for Z. Randolph due to his mid range shooting ability (like D. Nowitzki).
However, I also expect MEM to have a good edge on the offense end vs. ATL. ATL don’t have depth on the frontcourt and they are really undersized and prone to be outrebounded and “outmuscled” down low. That’s what I expect for tonight w/ MEM “bigs” to score w/ some ease near the basket.
Basically, ATL w/ their superior ball movement will be able to create good looks from the outside while MEM will have the edge on the inside, the correlation between these two edges makes the Over a solid play in my opinion.
Just look for ATL’s last game @NO… 29 of their FGM were assisted for a phenomenal 76% assist/rate! I expect Teague to use his speed advantage over N. Calathes while P. Millsap is a tough matchup for Z. Randolph due to his mid range shooting ability (like D. Nowitzki).
However, I also expect MEM to have a good edge on the offense end vs. ATL. ATL don’t have depth on the frontcourt and they are really undersized and prone to be outrebounded and “outmuscled” down low. That’s what I expect for tonight w/ MEM “bigs” to score w/ some ease near the basket.
Basically, ATL w/ their superior ball movement will be able to create good looks from the outside while MEM will have the edge on the inside, the correlation between these two edges makes the Over a solid play in my opinion.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 189.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 507 Portland Trail Blazers @ 508 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #3
Eventually, we will win some plays w/ Under this season when both the matchup & physical spot is favoring a relatively low scoring game. We’ve lost a similar play last night w/ LAC vs. TOR because there were a ton of FT’s, but we should be patient and keep finding the right spots.
This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Blazers and they are coming from a huge effort @IND last night in which 4 of their starters logged more than 40minutes! On the other side, MIN will play tonight their 4th game in 5 days w/ two of their key players playing 36 and 41 minutes. Note that Kevin Love didn’t look 100% healthy last night…
The first H2H games between these two teams ended w/ 229 & 219 points… MIN was able to torch POR pound down low using primarily N. Pekovic that enjoyed two big games: 1) 14-19 FG for 30 pts & 2) 9-18 FG for 23 pts. Unfortunately for MEM, Pekovic is injured and so, w/ Love banged up, POR interior defense won’t be torched this time.
On the other side, POR offense is struggling to hit their outside shots – just 30.3% 3pts% in L10 games (ranked #28 in the league). Last night, D. Lillard was just spectacular w/ 15-26 FG, 4-7 3pts for 38 points but he also played a team high 45 minutes and for some reason, he is struggling in b2b games this season by shooting just 37.6% FG.
My fair line for this contest is 206/08 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play.
This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Blazers and they are coming from a huge effort @IND last night in which 4 of their starters logged more than 40minutes! On the other side, MIN will play tonight their 4th game in 5 days w/ two of their key players playing 36 and 41 minutes. Note that Kevin Love didn’t look 100% healthy last night…
The first H2H games between these two teams ended w/ 229 & 219 points… MIN was able to torch POR pound down low using primarily N. Pekovic that enjoyed two big games: 1) 14-19 FG for 30 pts & 2) 9-18 FG for 23 pts. Unfortunately for MEM, Pekovic is injured and so, w/ Love banged up, POR interior defense won’t be torched this time.
On the other side, POR offense is struggling to hit their outside shots – just 30.3% 3pts% in L10 games (ranked #28 in the league). Last night, D. Lillard was just spectacular w/ 15-26 FG, 4-7 3pts for 38 points but he also played a team high 45 minutes and for some reason, he is struggling in b2b games this season by shooting just 37.6% FG.
My fair line for this contest is 206/08 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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