NBA - 725 Portland Trail Blazers @ 726 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #1
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
We are dealing with two teams w/ almost similar records (LAC 36-18 & POR 36-16) and so, this LAC-8.5/-9 line sounds “weird”, right?!
Well, I have to say that I had this play on my mind since I’ve saw the Blazers having tremendous problems to defeat a MIN team playing without K. Love, K. Martin and N. Pekovic this past Saturday! POR is banged up both physically and "mentally" and having to face a rested LAC tonight after playing a tight game vs. OKC last night will be too much for them...
I know that POR has been a jump shooting team all season long but lately, they simply can’t score near the basket… In L4 games, they have scored just 20, 24, 28 and 38 points in the paint! It’s hard to win ball games almost exclusively from long range jumpers, especially if you are tired and this has been the case for the Blazers lately…
You just need to watch last night’s 4th quarter to understand how 1) POR was tired in the final quarter & 2) they are attempting ONLY long range jumpers, here’s a sample play-by-play from POR midway the 4th quarter:
9:48 80-84 Wesley Matthews misses 25-foot three point jumper
9:38 80-84 C.J. McCollum misses 24-foot three point jumper
9:11 80-84 C.J. McCollum misses 21-foot jumper
8:17 80-84 C.J. McCollum misses 26-foot three point jumper
8:11 80-84 C.J. McCollum misses 9-foot Running Jumper
8:02 80-84 Wesley Matthews misses 23-foot three point jumper
7:15 87-84 LaMarcus Aldridge misses 19-foot jumper
L. Aldrige is banged up and struggling a bit lately and tonight he will face B. Griffin that is simply dominating the game right now.
However, the X factor for this contest is related w/ LAC offense vs. POR defense.
As good as D. Lillard has been offensively, his defense has been incredibly bad!! Just look for opp. PG’s against POR lately:
George Hill 12-19 FG, 11-12 FT for 37 points & 8 assists
Ricky Rubio (!!!) 8-19 FG, 2-4 3pts, 7-8 FT for 25 points & 9 assists
Last night, Reggie Jackson went scoreless in the first half w/ 0-6 FG, but he was THE REASON (with Durant obviously) why OKC rallied back and won the game as he finished the 2nd half w/ 7-13 FG, for 17 points and 4 assists!
Well, there is guy called Chris Paul and he’s healthy now and ready to destroy POR’s ranked #26 P&R ball handler defense, while POR awful interior defense will be torched by Griffin & DeAndre Jordan.
Last night, POR’s best backup defensive interior player J. Freeland got injured (and will miss this contest) and Robin Lopez was “forced” to play major minutes. POR don’t have any decent interior defensive solution on the bench and so, I expect LAC to have some great edges down low tonight.
POR won the first h2h game (a game where they were rested +3days off vs. LAC team playing b2b games, a day after Christmas day), so LAC knows the importance of winning tonight’s contest for a potential playoff home court edge going forward. The correlation of all the factors mentioned before makes me playing the Los Angeles Clippers as my Triple Dime Play.
Well, I have to say that I had this play on my mind since I’ve saw the Blazers having tremendous problems to defeat a MIN team playing without K. Love, K. Martin and N. Pekovic this past Saturday! POR is banged up both physically and "mentally" and having to face a rested LAC tonight after playing a tight game vs. OKC last night will be too much for them...
I know that POR has been a jump shooting team all season long but lately, they simply can’t score near the basket… In L4 games, they have scored just 20, 24, 28 and 38 points in the paint! It’s hard to win ball games almost exclusively from long range jumpers, especially if you are tired and this has been the case for the Blazers lately…
You just need to watch last night’s 4th quarter to understand how 1) POR was tired in the final quarter & 2) they are attempting ONLY long range jumpers, here’s a sample play-by-play from POR midway the 4th quarter:
9:48 80-84 Wesley Matthews misses 25-foot three point jumper
9:38 80-84 C.J. McCollum misses 24-foot three point jumper
9:11 80-84 C.J. McCollum misses 21-foot jumper
8:17 80-84 C.J. McCollum misses 26-foot three point jumper
8:11 80-84 C.J. McCollum misses 9-foot Running Jumper
8:02 80-84 Wesley Matthews misses 23-foot three point jumper
7:15 87-84 LaMarcus Aldridge misses 19-foot jumper
L. Aldrige is banged up and struggling a bit lately and tonight he will face B. Griffin that is simply dominating the game right now.
However, the X factor for this contest is related w/ LAC offense vs. POR defense.
As good as D. Lillard has been offensively, his defense has been incredibly bad!! Just look for opp. PG’s against POR lately:
George Hill 12-19 FG, 11-12 FT for 37 points & 8 assists
Ricky Rubio (!!!) 8-19 FG, 2-4 3pts, 7-8 FT for 25 points & 9 assists
Last night, Reggie Jackson went scoreless in the first half w/ 0-6 FG, but he was THE REASON (with Durant obviously) why OKC rallied back and won the game as he finished the 2nd half w/ 7-13 FG, for 17 points and 4 assists!
Well, there is guy called Chris Paul and he’s healthy now and ready to destroy POR’s ranked #26 P&R ball handler defense, while POR awful interior defense will be torched by Griffin & DeAndre Jordan.
Last night, POR’s best backup defensive interior player J. Freeland got injured (and will miss this contest) and Robin Lopez was “forced” to play major minutes. POR don’t have any decent interior defensive solution on the bench and so, I expect LAC to have some great edges down low tonight.
POR won the first h2h game (a game where they were rested +3days off vs. LAC team playing b2b games, a day after Christmas day), so LAC knows the importance of winning tonight’s contest for a potential playoff home court edge going forward. The correlation of all the factors mentioned before makes me playing the Los Angeles Clippers as my Triple Dime Play.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 726 Los Angeles Clippers (-8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 719 Washington Wizards @ 720 Houston Rockets
Play #2
I expect this contest to be a fast paced one w/ both teams having some good edges on the offensive end as my fair line in here is 208/210 points.
WAS is coming from a competitive game @MEM played in “MEM’s” terms – slow paced, grind out game. Note that HOU played twice MEM not a long time ago, and also both games were slow paced affairs as the Grizzlies really control the tempo of the game of their games.
The same thing won’t happen tonight as both teams want to push the pace and have aggressive quick-footed guards…
WAS defense has been decent as of late, but there is a “bad” pattern for them related w/ their backcourt defense: last night, MEM’s PG N. Calathes went 8-12 FG for 18 pts & 6 assists… SAC’s PG Isaiah Thomas torched them w/ 11-24 FG, 8-8 FT for 30 points… and both CLE’s guards Irving & Waiters combined to score 47 points against WAS. Obviously, there is a clear regression in WAS’s P&R defense and unfortunately for them, they will face one of the best P&R offensive teams in the league in the Rockets, and so, I expect HOU to be efficient offensively.
On the other side, I expect WAS to cause some problems to HOU defense as well. HOU’s best defensive guard P. Beverly is banged up (game time decision) and even though HOU is coming from b2b good perimeter defensive performances (6-15 & 6-25 3pts), we just can’t ignore that they have faced MIL & MIN without their best shooter K. Martin, so they enjoyed some favorable matchups in the last games.
The first h2h between these two teams ended up w/ HOU winning 114-107 in an ultra fast paced affair w/ 36 total fast break pts scored & 106 points in the paint. I expect a similar type of game tonight and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
WAS is coming from a competitive game @MEM played in “MEM’s” terms – slow paced, grind out game. Note that HOU played twice MEM not a long time ago, and also both games were slow paced affairs as the Grizzlies really control the tempo of the game of their games.
The same thing won’t happen tonight as both teams want to push the pace and have aggressive quick-footed guards…
WAS defense has been decent as of late, but there is a “bad” pattern for them related w/ their backcourt defense: last night, MEM’s PG N. Calathes went 8-12 FG for 18 pts & 6 assists… SAC’s PG Isaiah Thomas torched them w/ 11-24 FG, 8-8 FT for 30 points… and both CLE’s guards Irving & Waiters combined to score 47 points against WAS. Obviously, there is a clear regression in WAS’s P&R defense and unfortunately for them, they will face one of the best P&R offensive teams in the league in the Rockets, and so, I expect HOU to be efficient offensively.
On the other side, I expect WAS to cause some problems to HOU defense as well. HOU’s best defensive guard P. Beverly is banged up (game time decision) and even though HOU is coming from b2b good perimeter defensive performances (6-15 & 6-25 3pts), we just can’t ignore that they have faced MIL & MIN without their best shooter K. Martin, so they enjoyed some favorable matchups in the last games.
The first h2h between these two teams ended up w/ HOU winning 114-107 in an ultra fast paced affair w/ 36 total fast break pts scored & 106 points in the paint. I expect a similar type of game tonight and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Over 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Indiana Pacers
Play #3
Well, DAL interior defense was completely dominated by Al Jefferson last night that destroyed them w/ 14-23 FG 30 pts while CHA as a team scored 60 pts in the paint and went 20-26 FG at the rim… Today won’t be easier for them as IND has a strong frontcourt unit that is coming from a pure domination vs. DEN in the last game: West 11-13 FG + Hibbert 6-12 FG + Scola 4-8 FG and even Mahimni 2-3 FG.
Like I’ve said ton of times, IND’s offense is streaky and they are coming from a monster offensive game so they are confident and rested = good sign for some offensive continuity.
Obviously, the X factor for this contest is related w/ DAL offense vs. IND defense…
DAL was humiliated last night and DAL’s coach “rested” their key players, so we aren’t dealing with a typical “letdown” b2b spot.
Having said that, DAL offense is actually a “bad matchup” for IND’s defense…
IND’s defense is predicated to “force” their opponents to shoot from mid range and… well, this is what the Mavericks do & w/ some great efficiency: DAL is ranked #5 from 16-23feet + ranked #4 from 10-15feet! Somehow, I think that this matchup is similar to the one IND vs. POR…and POR covered the spread in both games because their offense was able to be efficient vs. IND defense.
Despite last night’s awful game, DAL offense has been sharp and I expect them to be decent while IND’s offense will simply dominate down low.
Like I’ve said ton of times, IND’s offense is streaky and they are coming from a monster offensive game so they are confident and rested = good sign for some offensive continuity.
Obviously, the X factor for this contest is related w/ DAL offense vs. IND defense…
DAL was humiliated last night and DAL’s coach “rested” their key players, so we aren’t dealing with a typical “letdown” b2b spot.
Having said that, DAL offense is actually a “bad matchup” for IND’s defense…
IND’s defense is predicated to “force” their opponents to shoot from mid range and… well, this is what the Mavericks do & w/ some great efficiency: DAL is ranked #5 from 16-23feet + ranked #4 from 10-15feet! Somehow, I think that this matchup is similar to the one IND vs. POR…and POR covered the spread in both games because their offense was able to be efficient vs. IND defense.
Despite last night’s awful game, DAL offense has been sharp and I expect them to be decent while IND’s offense will simply dominate down low.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 195.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 723 Miami Heat @ 724 Golden State Warriors
Play #4
It was interesting for me to watch MIA control the tempo of the game last night vs. PHX. I was expecting a fast paced contest, as this is usually the style that PHX wants to play especially at home, but the game had “only” pace factor = 89.6! Note that PHX’s pace factor for the season is 94.35 so you can “see” the difference.
Their previous game @UTA had pace factor = 81.4 so this is IMO an obvious trend: MIA wants to slow down a bit the tempo of the game, and not enter in “track meats” vs. their opponents. Being this contest a b2b game, there is no reason to think otherwise for tonight…
I had MIA-3 last night vs. PHX w/ the X factor being:
“OK… MIA has by far the best P&R defense in the league and this is super important vs. PHX team that has Goran Dragic as their primary ball handler! MIA’s biggest defensive weakness has been their “inability” to make the proper defensive rotations on the weak side and teams w/ great ball moment are torching them from the outside.
I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! “
Well, GSW is somehow a similar team as PHX as their primary scoring source is on the perimeter and their ball movement is quite subpar – they are averaging just 19.8 assists per game in L5 games!
Their previous game @UTA had pace factor = 81.4 so this is IMO an obvious trend: MIA wants to slow down a bit the tempo of the game, and not enter in “track meats” vs. their opponents. Being this contest a b2b game, there is no reason to think otherwise for tonight…
I had MIA-3 last night vs. PHX w/ the X factor being:
“OK… MIA has by far the best P&R defense in the league and this is super important vs. PHX team that has Goran Dragic as their primary ball handler! MIA’s biggest defensive weakness has been their “inability” to make the proper defensive rotations on the weak side and teams w/ great ball moment are torching them from the outside.
I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! “
Well, GSW is somehow a similar team as PHX as their primary scoring source is on the perimeter and their ball movement is quite subpar – they are averaging just 19.8 assists per game in L5 games!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
No comments:
Post a Comment