NBA Premium Card 02/26

NBA - 707 New Orleans Pelicans @ 708 Dallas Mavericks

Play #2

DAL offense is just killing every opponent that struggles to defend PNR’s… and guess what... the Pelicans are a subpar defensive team vs. PNR’s! Against the Knicks, DAL was simply incredible on the offensive end via PNR’s -> -> 7-19 FG for 0.95 PPP in PNR ball handler plays & 7-11 FG for 1.31 in PNR Roll Man plays! We can add the fact that they were able to hit 15-36 3pts shots even though Nowitzki went 0-5 3pts!

NO was completely torched by the Clippers especially on PNR’s so I don’t think that suddenly they will be able to slow down DAL’s offense.

On the other end, NO offense is “predictable” as they play w/ Aminu & Stiemsma @ starting lineup = offensively challenged players and so teams are focused only in stopping Davis, Roberts and Gordon. That will be the case tonight for the Mavericks and IMO, we should be dealing w/ Dallas being favored by 10 points!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Dallas Mavericks (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 709 Los Angeles Lakers @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies

Play #3

MEM had 3 days off to rest and prepare tonight’s contest... Mike Conley naturally has struggled a bit since he returned from an injury as he went 6-15 FG, 3-10 FG & 6-16 FG in those 3 games, so these 3 days off IMO will help him and the team to work some things, especially w/ their offensive chemistry.

Well, they will face tonight the Lakers…so this is a great matchup for them to be decent offensively as LAL is a terrible defensive rebounding team…their post up defense is really subpar while LAL’s guards won’t have “a chance” vs. Conley’s speed!

LAL’s offense relies heavily on PNR’s & transition plays…MEM’s defense is ranked just #25 defending PNR’s ball handler plays & #18 vs. transition… I think that we are dealing w/ a similar spot of our Over Play w/ IND vs. LAL! MEM will score “so easily” that they will relax a bit on the defensive end.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 713 Detroit Pistons @ 714 San Antonio Spurs

Play #4

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

In the first H2H game between these two teams, DET scored 109 points against the Spurs and I really don’t think that this will happen tonight….

It looks like K. Leonard will return tonight and so, SAS will receive their best perimeter defensive player… T. Parker is OUT and so, SAS will start w/ C. Joseph (a defensive specialist), D. Green & Leonard. In that game, DET had a “rare day” in which their guards were sharp offensively w/ Jennings shooting 8-18 FG + Stuckey 7-13 FG + Bynum 4-8 FG…this won’t happen many times (unfortunately for DET).

Also, Tiago Splitter didn’t play that game and Popovich decided to start w/ A. Baynes… obviously DET pounded SAS w/ 52 pts paint & 56.3% reb/rate%! Splitter will start tonight and we have another “factor” favoring SAS’s defense in this matchup.

On the other end, the fact that T. Parker is still OUT for this contest will “help” DET’s defense. Parker’s penetrations off the dribble would kill DET’s lack of speed of their “bigs”…

My fair line for this contest is 204/206 points and so, we have some great value w/ the Under IMO.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 210.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 717 Brooklyn Nets @ 718 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #5

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

In this contest, we have pretty everything we would want to release a Triple Dime Play…

POR is playing @b2b game after playing last night @DET – one of the worst possible spots in the NBA. I’ve watched that game and POR literally ran out of gas late in the game… From being up 84-69 early in the 4th quarter to be 90-88 w/ 3 minutes left in the game.

POR’s offense without L. Aldridge is super predictable…PNR after PNR after PNR…we are dealing w/ a team almost exclusively based on their perimeter… they attempted 28 3pts vs. MIN and last night, POR attempted 31 (!) three pointers! POR was one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league but by playing “small ball” without LMA, they don’t have the strength in this area – this is good news for a BKN team that struggles in the glass!

POR defense is far from being elite…D. Lillard’s defense has been awful for quite some time – which I completely understand as he has to do so much on the offensive right now… fortunately for them, POR played vs. MIN & DEN in L2 games. R. Rubio & A. Brooks didn’t have the proper skill to punish Lillard on the offensive end but that won’t happen tonight as D. Williams’ size will be a huge problem for the Blazers.

POR’s bench was awful last night and this could be problematic for this tough physical spot for the Blazers tonight. BKN’s bench has been one of their strengths all season long and I really think that tonight they will be a huge factor.

This line of POR-2 might sound strange as after all, the Blazers are the “better” overall team…but considering LMA’s absence + their awful physical spot + small ball favors BKN = we really should be dealing w/ BKN being the favorite team in this particular matchup and therefore, I’m taking the Nets as my Triple Dime Play.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 717 Brooklyn Nets (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 703 Atlanta Hawks @ 704 Boston Celtics

Play #1

ATL might be shorthanded right now, but they are playing hard and last night they could have defeated the Bulls if not some late TO’s (fortunately for us!).

Obviously, ATL is being crushed by their opponents on the glass… they had only 46% reb/rate% vs. CHI while CHI’s frontcourt were great offensively w/ Boozer 8-14 FG, Noah 9-13 FG e Gibson 5-12 FG.

Despite all the injuries, ATL’s offense has been pretty decent as their perimeter is producing at a decent level due to their great ball movement – ATL is shooting 44.5% from 3pts in L5 games!

For this contest against the Celtics…the X factor IMO is that BOS don’t have the proper players and/or depth to pound ATL’s down low. BOS’s best post up player J. Sullinger is OUT for tonight…. Kelly Olynyk will miss the game as well and even Vitor Faverani is OUT! I really don’t think that B. Bass & K. Humphries are skilled enough on the post to torch the Hawks tonight…

On the other end, BOS is a bit of shorthanded @ backcourt and this is where ATL’s really excels right now… R. Rondo isn’t playing @100% (especially on the defensive end) and my fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 game. BOS is in full “tanking mode” and they shouldn’t be favored in this contest IMO!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Atlanta Hawks (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker