NBA - 803 Portland Trail Blazers @ 804 Indiana Pacers
Play #4
Most likely, this will be the contest where “everyone” will notice how important (and good) Lance Stephenson is for the Pacers. You might not believe it, but Stephenson leads the team in assists this season w/ 5.3 assists per game, and by replacing him w/ D. Granger is NOT the same thing!
I’ve been saying that IND’s offense has been streaky all season long and right now they are struggling – just 20/19 A/TO ration in the last game vs. ATL and without Stephenson, I don’t expect to see any “good” ball movement from IND tonight.
POR is a tough matchup for IND regardless the injury of Stephenson. IND’s great offense is build to force the opponents to shoot “long jumpers” and well…that’s exactly what POR offense does w/ great efficiency: POR is ranked #6 from 16-23 feet and ranked #10 from 10-15 feet.
My fair line for this contest adjusted to the absence of Stephenson is IND-3/-3.5 and so, we are getting some good value w/ POR in my opinion.
I’ve been saying that IND’s offense has been streaky all season long and right now they are struggling – just 20/19 A/TO ration in the last game vs. ATL and without Stephenson, I don’t expect to see any “good” ball movement from IND tonight.
POR is a tough matchup for IND regardless the injury of Stephenson. IND’s great offense is build to force the opponents to shoot “long jumpers” and well…that’s exactly what POR offense does w/ great efficiency: POR is ranked #6 from 16-23 feet and ranked #10 from 10-15 feet.
My fair line for this contest adjusted to the absence of Stephenson is IND-3/-3.5 and so, we are getting some good value w/ POR in my opinion.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Portland Trail Blazers (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 807 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 808 Orlando Magic
Play #5
We really have to choose the right spots to fade a strong team like OKC and tonight this is one of them...
OKC is coming from 2 home games vs. MEM & MIN, and they have this next Sunday (@1PM) a Primetime National TV game against the Knicks, so this isn’t a good “motivational” spot for them by any means.
Meanwhile, ORL is finally healthy w/ Nelson & Vucevic on the lineup. They easily dismantled the Pistons in the last game, and they have a balanced starting lineup w/ rookie Oladipo coming off the bench.
Obviously, OKC will eventually put another gear on the fourth quarter but we are talking about a 10-pts line and I feel that we have some good value w/ underdogs in here.
OKC is coming from 2 home games vs. MEM & MIN, and they have this next Sunday (@1PM) a Primetime National TV game against the Knicks, so this isn’t a good “motivational” spot for them by any means.
Meanwhile, ORL is finally healthy w/ Nelson & Vucevic on the lineup. They easily dismantled the Pistons in the last game, and they have a balanced starting lineup w/ rookie Oladipo coming off the bench.
Obviously, OKC will eventually put another gear on the fourth quarter but we are talking about a 10-pts line and I feel that we have some good value w/ underdogs in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 808 Orlando Magic (+10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NBA - 819 Toronto Raptors @ 820 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #6
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
I’m aware that the first h2h game between these teams ended up w/ 244 points (first half had 136 points!) and I had the OVER as my Play for one of our easiest plays of the season but IMO tonight’s game will be a completely different story…
Note that both teams are facing some terrible physical spots to perform @ high level: LAC is coming from a huge physical battle vs. MIA in the last, just look for LAC’s starter’s minutes in that game:
Blake Griffin 42
Matt Barnes 40
DeAndre Jordan 41
Darren Collison 38
Jamal Crawford 47
On the other side, this will be TOR’s last game of their road trip and TOR’s two players DeRozan & Lowry have played 41 & 38 min
Both teams are great defensively vs. P&R ball handler & transition plays. TOR is ranked #4 & #4 respectively while LAC is ranked #2 & #6. It’s important to highlight these two plays in this matchup, because both offenses really need to perform well in these two areas as they aren’t consistent w/ their outside shots, especially LAC now that JJ Redick is OUT for tonight.
The first h2h game was really bizarre because T. Ross suddenly looked like Michael Jordan as he scored 51 points while shooting 16-29 FG & 10-17. LAC was super sharp shooting the ball w/ 12-22 3pts but note that they had “only” 20 assists vs. 46 FGM’s! I’ve just checked and actually, their 43.5% assists/rate% in that game was their “worst mark” of the season! That kind of game won’t happen tonight while w/ 2 tired teams, I expect more a “grind out game” and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Triple Dime Play!
Note that both teams are facing some terrible physical spots to perform @ high level: LAC is coming from a huge physical battle vs. MIA in the last, just look for LAC’s starter’s minutes in that game:
Blake Griffin 42
Matt Barnes 40
DeAndre Jordan 41
Darren Collison 38
Jamal Crawford 47
On the other side, this will be TOR’s last game of their road trip and TOR’s two players DeRozan & Lowry have played 41 & 38 min
Both teams are great defensively vs. P&R ball handler & transition plays. TOR is ranked #4 & #4 respectively while LAC is ranked #2 & #6. It’s important to highlight these two plays in this matchup, because both offenses really need to perform well in these two areas as they aren’t consistent w/ their outside shots, especially LAC now that JJ Redick is OUT for tonight.
The first h2h game was really bizarre because T. Ross suddenly looked like Michael Jordan as he scored 51 points while shooting 16-29 FG & 10-17. LAC was super sharp shooting the ball w/ 12-22 3pts but note that they had “only” 20 assists vs. 46 FGM’s! I’ve just checked and actually, their 43.5% assists/rate% in that game was their “worst mark” of the season! That kind of game won’t happen tonight while w/ 2 tired teams, I expect more a “grind out game” and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 819/820 Under 205.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 811 Denver Nuggets @ 812 New York Knicks
Play #1
DEN offense is really a completely different team w/ Lawson on the court…
Lately he has missed two games and DEN lost both while having subpar Off. Rtg. 94.8 & 93.6 vs. CHA & TOR. He returned to play DEN’s L2 games vs. LAC & MIL, and not only DEN won both games but they also showed some nice offensive numbers w/ 118.1 & 113.0.
Here’s the deal for tonight: who will stop Ty Lawson?!?
R. Felton? P. Prigioni? JR Smith? I don’t have to answer that, right?
NYK’s defense is ranked #30 vs. P&R Ball Handler plays & #28 vs. transition, so IMO DEN will just eat them alive in transition.
The good news is that DEN is a subpar offensive team, and so, I also expect NYK to have a decent offensive game. Faried won’t be comfortable defensively guarding Carmelo Anthony as he really struggles vs. “stretch-fours” kind of players, so most likely, DEN’s coach will have to play small ball vs. NYK tonight.
I expect DEN to control the tempo of the game, and while they will pound NYK near the basket, I expect NYK to be efficient from the outside = pure shootout contest.
Lately he has missed two games and DEN lost both while having subpar Off. Rtg. 94.8 & 93.6 vs. CHA & TOR. He returned to play DEN’s L2 games vs. LAC & MIL, and not only DEN won both games but they also showed some nice offensive numbers w/ 118.1 & 113.0.
Here’s the deal for tonight: who will stop Ty Lawson?!?
R. Felton? P. Prigioni? JR Smith? I don’t have to answer that, right?
NYK’s defense is ranked #30 vs. P&R Ball Handler plays & #28 vs. transition, so IMO DEN will just eat them alive in transition.
The good news is that DEN is a subpar offensive team, and so, I also expect NYK to have a decent offensive game. Faried won’t be comfortable defensively guarding Carmelo Anthony as he really struggles vs. “stretch-fours” kind of players, so most likely, DEN’s coach will have to play small ball vs. NYK tonight.
I expect DEN to control the tempo of the game, and while they will pound NYK near the basket, I expect NYK to be efficient from the outside = pure shootout contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811/812 Over 207.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 815 Utah Jazz @ 816 Dallas Mavericks
Play #2
The Mavericks’ offense has been playing @ unbelievable level as of late. I have them w/ 125 Off. Rtg. in the L6 games – insane numbers! Sure that they have faced some poor defensive teams during this stretch (BKN, DET, SAC and/or CLE) but scoring 110 points @MEM is a truly good testament of how good they are scoring the basketball right now. Dirk Nowitzki has been a beast - he made 10 of 14 shots for 26 points @MEM and he’s averaging 29.8 points on 61.6 percent shooting in his last five games.
Well, I don’t expect UTA’s defense to be a tough matchup for them, as UTA is a subpar defensive team in key areas where DAL’s offense excels (P&R’s, spot up and transition).
The key question for me it’s related w/ UTA’s offensive production for tonight…
We are talking about a team that has scored 90, 87 and 79 pts L3 games. My key factor for such bad offensive outcomes:
Rookie Trey Burke is “tired” (pretty normal for a rookie) and G. Hayward is struggling a bit since he returned from an injury… just look for the combined FG% numbers from these 2 players in L3 games: vs. GSW: 3-20 FG; vs. LAC 5-26 FG & vs. TOR 7-25 FG. Also, those 3 teams are elite defensive teams vs. P&R ball handler -> a key offensive play for UTA.
The good news for UTA is that they had 3 days off to rest and recharge the batteries for this contest, while Burke & Hayward will face tonight Jose Calderon & Monta Ellis, so they have a good matchup as well to be decent offensively. Also DAL interior defense is also far from being a decent unit and D. Favors will play tonight. Therefore, I expect both teams to have a considerable on offense and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
Well, I don’t expect UTA’s defense to be a tough matchup for them, as UTA is a subpar defensive team in key areas where DAL’s offense excels (P&R’s, spot up and transition).
The key question for me it’s related w/ UTA’s offensive production for tonight…
We are talking about a team that has scored 90, 87 and 79 pts L3 games. My key factor for such bad offensive outcomes:
Rookie Trey Burke is “tired” (pretty normal for a rookie) and G. Hayward is struggling a bit since he returned from an injury… just look for the combined FG% numbers from these 2 players in L3 games: vs. GSW: 3-20 FG; vs. LAC 5-26 FG & vs. TOR 7-25 FG. Also, those 3 teams are elite defensive teams vs. P&R ball handler -> a key offensive play for UTA.
The good news for UTA is that they had 3 days off to rest and recharge the batteries for this contest, while Burke & Hayward will face tonight Jose Calderon & Monta Ellis, so they have a good matchup as well to be decent offensively. Also DAL interior defense is also far from being a decent unit and D. Favors will play tonight. Therefore, I expect both teams to have a considerable on offense and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Over 205.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 809 Sacramento Kings @ 810 Boston Celtics
Play #3
We’ve won w/ BOS our Triple Dime Play Game of the Week this Wednesday against the 76ers, and my key factor for that play was BOS’s potential domination from their backcourt unit of Rondo & Bradley.
Well, Rondo dominated the game w/ almost a triple double while Michael Carter-Williams struggled heavily w/ 5-16 FG, 6 assists & 4 TO’s.
The bad news for BOS is that both Rondo & Bradley are OUT for tonight and once again, BOS will be super shorthanded on the backcourt. This is problematic because SAC has Isaiah Thomas @ PG and I expect him to really dominate the game offensively.
Also, D. Cousins will have a good favorable individual matchup vs. BOS’s centers… no one will be able to slow him down, and SAC offense has a good spot for tonight.
On the other side, SAC perimeter defense won’t be torched as usual (note that they are coming from 3 solid defensive performances vs. SAS, CHI & TOR) because the Celtics are really a bad jump shooting team and so, I expect SAC to naturally defeat BOS tonight.
Well, Rondo dominated the game w/ almost a triple double while Michael Carter-Williams struggled heavily w/ 5-16 FG, 6 assists & 4 TO’s.
The bad news for BOS is that both Rondo & Bradley are OUT for tonight and once again, BOS will be super shorthanded on the backcourt. This is problematic because SAC has Isaiah Thomas @ PG and I expect him to really dominate the game offensively.
Also, D. Cousins will have a good favorable individual matchup vs. BOS’s centers… no one will be able to slow him down, and SAC offense has a good spot for tonight.
On the other side, SAC perimeter defense won’t be torched as usual (note that they are coming from 3 solid defensive performances vs. SAS, CHI & TOR) because the Celtics are really a bad jump shooting team and so, I expect SAC to naturally defeat BOS tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809 Sacramento Kings (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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