NBA - 505 Atlanta Hawks @ 506 Chicago Bulls
Play #4
I don’t like CHI’s physical spot for this contest as not only they are returning home after a big West Coast road trip but especially because they had only one day off to rest and three of their key players Butler, Gibson & Noah played ton of minutes in the last game @LAL.
In-game fatigue was a real problem in that game @CHI as LAL’s bench was able to outplay CHI’s tired starters, note that C. Kaman completely outplay them w/ 13-23 FG for 27 points in just 28 minutes.
ATL interior defense has been pretty impressive lately if we consider that they are shorthanded by allowing just 57% FG at the rim in L10 games! Against the Bulls, I simply expect them to keep packing the paint as they did against IND & MEM with some success.
On the other side, I think that ATL’s superior ball movement on the perimeter will be the X factor for tonight because both teams will struggle to score down low and ATL w/ their superior outside shooting has better chances to win this contest.
In-game fatigue was a real problem in that game @CHI as LAL’s bench was able to outplay CHI’s tired starters, note that C. Kaman completely outplay them w/ 13-23 FG for 27 points in just 28 minutes.
ATL interior defense has been pretty impressive lately if we consider that they are shorthanded by allowing just 57% FG at the rim in L10 games! Against the Bulls, I simply expect them to keep packing the paint as they did against IND & MEM with some success.
On the other side, I think that ATL’s superior ball movement on the perimeter will be the X factor for tonight because both teams will struggle to score down low and ATL w/ their superior outside shooting has better chances to win this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Atlanta Hawks (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 509 Miami Heat @ 510 Phoenix Suns
Play #5
OK… MIA has by far the best P&R defense in the league and this is super important vs. PHX team that has Goran Dragic as their primary ball handler! MIA’s biggest defensive weakness has been their “inability” to make the proper defensive rotations on the weak side and teams w/ great ball moment are torching them from the outside.
I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! That’s why MIA beat them so easily in the first h2h game…
MIA is coming from a pathetic performance in their last game @UTA, so there is some sense of urgency for this contest and I don’t expect them to take PHX “lightly” as they are now seen as a really good team.
I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! That’s why MIA beat them so easily in the first h2h game…
MIA is coming from a pathetic performance in their last game @UTA, so there is some sense of urgency for this contest and I don’t expect them to take PHX “lightly” as they are now seen as a really good team.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Miami Heat (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 508 Washington Wizards @ 509 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #2
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
I expect the Wizards to be extremely competitive tonight as they match up pretty well w/ MEM and especially, they will play them @ right time.
I don’t like MEM’s physical spot for this contest as they are coming from two brutal b2b games @ATL & @CLE – both were “grind out games” with the last one went to OT. I don’t know why but MEM’s coach doesn’t trust on their bench (frontcourt) and both Z. Randolph & M. Gasol have played some major minutes in L2 games. This is problematic for M. Gasol because he really looks far from being @100%!
In order to limit MEM’s offense, we need to know if WAS is a good defensive rebounding team & post up defense and here are the numbers:
WAS is ranked #4 in defensive rebounding w/ nice 76.0% and they are ranked #11 in post up defense! Just note that they held D. Cousins to just 3-16 FG in the last game!
It looks like MEM’s backcourt is banged up for tonight…. C. Lee is banged up while T. Allen and especially M. Conley are also banged and most likely will miss tonight’s contest. The absence of Conley has been a huge negative factor for the team because rookie N. Calathes, despite being playing quite well in his place, he is constantly overmatched defensively because he doesn’t have the proper speed to defend vs. quick guards. In the last game @CLE, K. Irving torched him w/ 9-17 FG, 4-4 FT & 6-8 FT for 28 points and 5 assists and for tonight, I expect John Wall to have a similar edge in his individual matchup.
MEM defense has been terrific since Gasol has returned but they tend to struggle vs. teams that can hit shots from the outside - something that this Wizards’ team is very dangerous.
In my opinion, WAS has some key edges vs. MEM in both ends of the floor, and that’s why I’m taking them as my Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 508 Washington Wizards (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Dallas Mavericks @ 504 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #1
DAL offense is playing in an unbelievable high level right now led by Dirk Nowitzki… They are ranked #4 for the season and in L8 games their Off. Rtg. = insane 123.6! DAL’s Pick n Roll game has been superb and I really think that they will create ton of problems vs. CHA defense.
CHA’s is struggling to defend P&R’s for quite some time now… you just need to know that SAS’s Patty Mills just killed them in the last game w/ 10-13 FG, 4-5 3pts & 8-9 FT for 32 pts primarily via P&R’s plays to understand these late struggles. CHA defense is predicated to protect the rim while they are a subpar perimeter defensive team, and obviously, DAL’s offense is exactly a jump shooting team.
DAL defense has been the main problem for Rick Carlisle but they showed some improvement in L2 games, this is related IMO w/ the fact that D. Harris is now healthy and his speed is important b/c it’s a plus for a DAL slow footed backcourt & especially S. Dalembert is finally some decent basketball in both ends of the floor.
Al Jefferson has been playing great as of late, but DAL has now Dalembert & Wright on the frontcourt to defend him… not a long time ago, D. Blair was their starting center, enough said!
K. Walker has returned to action but he looked rusty to me in both contests - 10-30 FG! I don’t think that CHA will be able to hang around w/ the best Mavericks’ of the season! Yes, they were competitive against the Spurs in the last game, but while SAS is shorthanded and banged up, DAL is now finally healthy and I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play!
CHA’s is struggling to defend P&R’s for quite some time now… you just need to know that SAS’s Patty Mills just killed them in the last game w/ 10-13 FG, 4-5 3pts & 8-9 FT for 32 pts primarily via P&R’s plays to understand these late struggles. CHA defense is predicated to protect the rim while they are a subpar perimeter defensive team, and obviously, DAL’s offense is exactly a jump shooting team.
DAL defense has been the main problem for Rick Carlisle but they showed some improvement in L2 games, this is related IMO w/ the fact that D. Harris is now healthy and his speed is important b/c it’s a plus for a DAL slow footed backcourt & especially S. Dalembert is finally some decent basketball in both ends of the floor.
Al Jefferson has been playing great as of late, but DAL has now Dalembert & Wright on the frontcourt to defend him… not a long time ago, D. Blair was their starting center, enough said!
K. Walker has returned to action but he looked rusty to me in both contests - 10-30 FG! I don’t think that CHA will be able to hang around w/ the best Mavericks’ of the season! Yes, they were competitive against the Spurs in the last game, but while SAS is shorthanded and banged up, DAL is now finally healthy and I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Dallas Mavericks (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 501 Sacramento Kings @ 502 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #3
It’s hard to predict these two teams in this season as they are super inconsistent and prone to not “show up” on the court but I expect SAC to have better chances to win this contest, and therefore we have some edge w/ them IMO.
Both teams likes to run a ton of P&R’s ball handler plays using their guards, however for some reason, SAC defense has been elite defending this kind of play – ranked #6 allowing 0.75 PPP. Nevertheless, I expect the backcourt battle to be a close matchup as both I. Thomas & K. Irving are tough players to be stopped on the offensive end.
Note that L. Deng is banged up w/ his Achilles tendon and so, Rudy Gay will have some edge in here…
However the X factor for this contest IMO will be related w/ frontcourt battle… Anderson Varejao is coming from a monster game vs. MEM in which he played 43 minutes and helped CLE to slow down MEM’s frontcourt. The bad news is that he is OUT for tonight’s game and therefore, CLE simply won’t have an answer to stop D. Cousins down low as T. Zeller will be completely overpowered by a D. Cousins that is coming from one of the worst games of the season w/ 3-16 from the field.
Both teams likes to run a ton of P&R’s ball handler plays using their guards, however for some reason, SAC defense has been elite defending this kind of play – ranked #6 allowing 0.75 PPP. Nevertheless, I expect the backcourt battle to be a close matchup as both I. Thomas & K. Irving are tough players to be stopped on the offensive end.
Note that L. Deng is banged up w/ his Achilles tendon and so, Rudy Gay will have some edge in here…
However the X factor for this contest IMO will be related w/ frontcourt battle… Anderson Varejao is coming from a monster game vs. MEM in which he played 43 minutes and helped CLE to slow down MEM’s frontcourt. The bad news is that he is OUT for tonight’s game and therefore, CLE simply won’t have an answer to stop D. Cousins down low as T. Zeller will be completely overpowered by a D. Cousins that is coming from one of the worst games of the season w/ 3-16 from the field.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Sacramento Kings ML @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline
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