NBA Premium Card 02/20

NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1

I think that we have some value w/ Under in this contest, but I rather prefer play the Under @ First Half as I expect the game to start slow due to some key factors.

The first h2h game between these two teams ended up w/ 207 points but the game was a “slow paced” affair w/ both teams being extremely efficient on the offensive end: OKC had 51.3% FG while MIA had 51.4% FG.

For tonight, I also expect the game to be a relatively slow paced game, so we need to figure out both teams’ offensive efficiency…

Why I like the Under @ First Half?!

It is confirmed that K. Perkins will start for OKC and he is completely worthless for the team…in the first h2h game, OKC scored just 2 points in the first 6 minutes of the game w/ him on the court vs. 110 points in the remaining 42 minutes.

Russell Westbrook is back! Westbrook will start tonight and we all know him… not only he will be “rusty”, but also, he will rush things a bit on the offensive end. This can be problematic for OKC offense because MIA defense is just awesome pressuring the opp. ball handlers!

OKC’s head coach Scott Brooks didn’t play Perkins in the second half of the last H2H game and OKC’s exploded in the third quarter w/ 36 points. This might happen tonight if OKC keeps struggling w/ Perkins on the court….meanwhile I expect Westbrook to be better in the second half as well – all things considered, OKC will tend to be “better” in the second half on the offensive end.

MIA is coming from a monster offensive game @DAL by scoring 117 points. OKC’s defense is in another level vs. DAL defense and so, I expect OKC defense to be decent in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under FIRST HALF 105.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 505 Houston Rockets @ 506 Golden State Warriors

Play #2

I played both teams last night in their respective games...for tonight’s contest, not only HOU is the better team IMO but they also have a better physical spot.

While HOU handled the Lakers last night pretty easily as only 2 HOU’s players logged more than 30 minutes (Harden 32 and Parsons 31), GSW’s coach Mark Jackson was forced to give major minutes to his key players because GSW was awful in the third quarter by being outscored from SAC 16-26 - Lee played 40min, while Curry + Klay + Iguodala logged 36/38 min!

Without Andrew Bogut, GSW was “lucky” that D. Cousins didn’t play last night – actually this was the X factor of my GSW play. SAC was almost exclusively a perimeter based team and they scored just 32 points in the paint, while GSW’s poor interior defense w/ Lee & O’Neal wasn’t explored. Well…this won’t happen tonight because HOU has Dwight Howard and Howard will simply dominate the game down low.

P. Beverly returned to action last night, O. Asik is back as well so we are dealing w/ a HOU healthy team that is way a better team than GSW. The perimeter “battle” will be fun to watch but the superior edge @ frontcourt for HOU will be the decisive factor IMO, and that’s why I’m taking the Rockets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Houston Rockets (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 503 Denver Nuggets @ 504 Milwaukee Bucks

Play #3

Yes, MIL is the worst team in the league but they are playing better as of late as their head coach Larry Drew has figured out some rotations, like playing rookie PG Wolters alongside w/ B. Knight; giving more minutes to J. Henson or playing K. Middleton @SF and not on the backcourt.

The key factor for this contest is clearly related with the Denver Nuggets…

Ty Lawson remains injured and will miss tonight’s game… not only he is BY FAR the Nuggets best player but also, DEN simply don’t have any real backups for him.

I went against them in their last game vs. PHX saying the following:

“In the L2 games prior to the All Star Break, DEN had awful Off. RTG of 87.3 & 93.0 while having just 17 and 19 assists. When their “Point Guard” right now is R. Foye (who is averaging just 3.0 assists per game this season), then it’s easy to understand why DEN is/will struggle this much without Lawson.”

Well, DEN finished the game shooting 38.4% FG, shooting just 5-28 behind the line and had only 17 assists!

Randy Foye isn’t a Point Guard and for this contest I really expect B. Knight to excel against the Nuggets’ poor backcourt defense. In the first h2h game between these two teams, DEN won the game by 10 points w/ 1) B. Knight having a terrible game w/ 4-17 FG and 2) Ty Lawson despite shooting just 6-14 FG, he had 7 rebounds and… 13 of the 22 team assists!

DEN is lacking some confidence and most importantly, they aren’t play well and this current line DEN-5 is just too much for them as my fair line is DEN-1.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Milwaukee Bucks (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes