Wednesday, February 5, 2014

NBA Premium Play 02/04

NBA - 501 Indiana Pacers @ 502 Atlanta Hawks

Play #1

I really wanted the Pacers to beat the Magic last night without having to spend any substantial energy and that indeed happened, as only Lance Stephenson played more than 27 minutes. In theory, this isn’t a good physical spot for them w/ 3rd game in 4days, but w/ last night’s walkover win vs. ORL, I don’t think fatigue will be a factor for IND tonight.

Having said that, IND really wants to win @ATL where Indiana has lost 12 straight regular season games and are just 1-14 in that stretch.

In the first h2h of the season, ATL has defeated IND at home 97-87 by taking advantage of a TRULY bad physical spot from IND: 4th game in 5days and were coming from a tough game vs. TOR in the previous day where 4 of their starters logged +30 min, nothing compared vs. today’s spot.

ATL is 2-0 in L2 games w/ easy wins vs. PHI & MIN. Note that they have faced 2 fast paced teams, and this is exactly the style of play that ATL wants to play so, both teams were favorable matchups for ATL. ATL is super shorthanded on the frontcourt… PHI don’t have any real inside presence and MIN played without Vucevic, still Kevin Love by himself completely dominated ATL down low w/ / 12-22 FG, 17-18 FT, 43 pts and 19 rebounds.

For tonight, I expect IND frontcourt to own ATL on the boards & down low, and this will be IMO the X factor of this contest and the biggest reason why I’m taking the Pacers tonight as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Indiana Pacers (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

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