Euro 2012 - Group C - Spain vs Italy
It’s an odd system, but this is where Spain is amazingly good! With Fernando Torres, Spain would surely have a typical striker to capitalize their chances but: 1) Torres is in terrible form and 2) It would be easier for Italy to defend a classic striker rather than undersized quick paced midfielders.
On the other end there are some news about Italy as well: after their terrible defensive performances in some friendly matches, coach Prandelli will use a 3-5-2 formation that has been mooted. Its looks likely that De Rossi will be played at center back alongside Chiellini and Bonnuci, while Motta will be inserted in the midfield along with Pirlo, Marchisio and Giaccherini!
The problem with this team against Spain is that I don’t think they are defensively disciplined enough to defend Spain. To defeat Spain/Barcelona you have to put all your men behind the ball and be incredible disciplined on the rotations, something that Italy can’t perform this with their current role of players.
Cassano and Balloteli are the Italians forwards and both don't have the reputation of working hard on defense. Normally at their club, they are allowed to be passive upfront without too much responsibility. I can see both of them starting off well and pressing hard, but after 30 or so minutes they will “quit”.
Then, on the midfield we have Pirlo and Motta who don’t have any substantial speed or stamina. They are good players with the ball, but without it then struggle to make the right close outs. From the Italian 10 field players, 4 of them aren’t able to work hard on defense and against this Spanish team, this will be critical. I believe that even with an odd squad, Spain will have too much football for Italy today, they will control the ball possession, create some chances and eventually score one or more goals. Therefore, I'll take Spain to win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Spain ML @ -125 / 1.80 on Pinnacle
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