NBA - 721 San Antonio Spurs @ 722 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected line: 199 points | Oklahoma City by 1 point
In the Game 5 of this series I thought that Oklahoma City had a legit chance to be competitive and even win the game and they beat San Antonio on the road. Nothing to say about it! However my strong play was the UNDER and early on we were “fucked”:
1) Ibaka picked two fouls in 45 seconds and he was benched, nevertheless Collison did a good defensive job
2) Sefolosha committed 2 quick fouls in the second quarter and with 3 fouls, Scott Brooks had no choice but bench him and he decided to bring Daequan Cook who didn’t play a single minute in game 4 and then Cook did this:
8:42 Daequan Cook makes jumper (James Harden assists)
7:56 Daequan Cook makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)
7:18 Daequan Cook makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)
3) Boris Diaw picked up his second foul with just 5 minutes of action and the best coach of the league lost his mind by bringing DeJuan Blair off the bench. A couple of minutes later, Tim Duncan also picked up his second half and Popovich decided to insert Matt Bonner on the floor. Can you imagine your frontcourt being constituted by the “all great defensive players” of Blair and Bonner?! Bonner made a terrible defensive play and was quickly benched and he didn’t play more time (he logged a grand total of 49 seconds)! Then I watched the Spurs playing with the following lineup: Parker-Neal-Green-Jackson-
Because the Spurs were badly outplayed by OKC’s big players in game 4, maybe Popovich felt the urgency of playing small ball and all those small lineups were insane! With all the adjustments that OKC made after Game 2 and Scott Brooks was brilliant, the Spurs doesn’t gain anything by playing small because this will likely lead to more turnovers from SAS.
The Spurs had 21 turnovers that resulted in 28 Oklahoma City Thunder points. The Spurs were particularly bad in the first half by racking up 14 turnovers that allowed the Thunder to come back from a seven point early deficit which eventually led to the Spurs going down as much as 14.
In a 95-possessions game, committing 21 turnovers (about 20% of TO/rate) won’t lead you to succeed especially against a team like OKC, who will make you pay on transition. After having a pace factor of 87.40 and 95.88, the combination of Spurs small ball and the Spurs turnovers led to the fastest paced game of this series w/95.88!
I really think Popovich is a smart man and a great coach and he knows that SAS can’t commit so many turnovers if they want to be competitive tonight, his statements after game 5 were pretty clear:
“Turnovers have really plagued us,” Popovich said before boarding a flight to Oklahoma City for Game 6. “They are a good enough team already. I don’t think they need our help. But when they score 28 points off of our 21 turnovers, it’s enough to make you kick yourself.
“So it’s frustrating and maddening more than anything because we have played so poorly as far as handling the basketball.”
I expect San Antonio to slow down the pace, playing a more controlled offense and especially Popovich won’t throw any weird lineups to the floor (I think).
However, Tony Parker is struggling! It’s a fact! For example Russell Westbrook isn’t shooting any better than Parker, but he is contributing in other areas. In Game 5 Russ had 12 assists while Parker had 4, 4 and 4 assists L3 games! Other Spurs role players are struggling as well like Green, Neal or Blair/Splitter and what Popovich did last game? Blair-Jackson-Green-Neal-
While watching Game 5, I couldn't stop noticing as aspect that may be critical for today: the Spurs starting unit completely outplayed the Thunder starting unit!
The score was 15-12 when Duncan checked out in the first quarter, leaving Parker alone among the big three. It was 23-19 OKC when Ginobili came in for Parker. Then in the third quarter, it was 69-68 for the Spurs when Manu checked out. Three minutes later, when he came back in, it was 74-71 Thunder. In seven total minutes playing without both Duncan and Parker, it was a 17-6 run for the Thunder!
That’s why when you look for the score we see Ginobili with a plus team points of +13 and Duncan with +17! Note that these two players logged 38 and 33 minutes and when they were on the floor the Spurs outscored the Thunder by double digits points! But OKC won the game by 5 points…BIZARRE!
Again, I think that Popovich will use better lineups and the Spurs only need to hung up when Ginobili and Duncan are on the bench because their core of Parker-Ginobili-Diaw/Jackson/
OKC is a great team but they still lack some good offensive chemistry. Down the stretch in G5, Russell Westbrook committed several sloppy turnovers and basically all OKC’s points came from unbelievable long range shots. Durant, Westbrook and Harden are great shooters, but those big shots won’t happen every time. I’m expecting San Antonio to slow down the pace tonight and play more on the halfcourt giving them a legit chance to upset OKC tonight.
I believe the Spurs will bring all their experience to the court, avoid turnovers at all cost and eventually make this game at least a very close one. So, I'll taking them tonight. As I expect this game to be played at a slower pace, with less turnovers and with the shooting being a bit less good due to the nerves of such an important game, I'm also taking the Under today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 203.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721 San Antonio Spurs (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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