Denmark upset Netherlands in the first game by being smart and having a bit dose of luck. Obviously they came to the game with a defensive mindset trying to hold back the Dutch attack and score in counter moves or in set pieces. They were able to score early so the strategy was perfect because it put a tremendous pressure to Netherlands, a pressure that they couldn’t manage. Netherlands held the ball possession (53 vs. 47%), they attempted an absurd 28 shots and had 11 corners but they couldn’t score! The Dutch coach took too long to change the team in my opinion: the first substitution was made only at the 71th minute!
For today I expect Denmark to have the same approach that worked against Netherlands, after all they have 3 points vs. 0 from Portugal so the pressure is on the Portuguese side to command the game. The difference is that Portugal can offer more dangerous to Denmark due to two factors: 1) Portugal has two good wing back players especially Fabio Coentrao who will help the offense and create some mismatches on the front. Netherlands had an inexperienced left back Willems while Van der Wiel was almost worthless because Arjen Robben didn’t pass the ball to anyone and 2) Netherlands played 71 minutes using a double pivot formation on the midfield constituted with two defensive minded players like De Jong and van Bommel. These two players offer little in terms of creativity and together they were worthless against Denmark’s laid back approach. Portugal doesn’t have a player like Sneijder but they have two midfield players that can attack and create chances so Denmark will have some problems to contain the Portuguese midfield.
Portugal is coming from a loss against Germany in the first game. National Head Coach Paulo Bento approached the game with a defensive mindset and only after Germany scored the goal, Portugal created several chances to tie the game but they fail to execute. Portugal is way more dangerous when they assume the control of the game and this is certainly what will happen today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Portugal (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Pinnacle
Euro 2012 - Group B - Germany vs Netherlands
Both teams are offensive minded teams so this will be an up and down game. Netherlands is coming from a loss in their first game so they have to win today, they will attack and their bad defensive unit will be exposed by the potent German attack.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.25 Goals @ -124 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes
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