NBA 06/19 Premium Play: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat

NBA - 507 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 508 Miami Heat

Projected line: 188 points | Miami by 1 point

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

As expected, Miami's defense had the same gameplan in Game 3 that they had had in Game 2 and it worked again. After having an offensive rating of 109.3 in game 2, OKC's offense regressed even more in G3 to “just” 97.8 – only the second time in this postseason that they had an offensive rating bellow the 100 pts/poss mark. The key for Miami once again was to protect the rim. After allowing OKC to have a stellar 26-36FG mark at the rim, OKC was held to 15-29 FG in Game 2 and in the last game, OKC was even worse with just 13-27 FG! In 3 games, they went from 72.30% to 51.80% to 48.0%!

By collapsing in the paint, the Heat basically took off the best part of the game of Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Westbrook’s drives to the basket are a key component for OKC's offense and he has been struggling L2 games with 6-13 & 1-6 FG at the rim. About 80% of Harden’s game is to drive left, but the Heat simply hasn’t allowed Harden to go left with some smart traps and double teams. The only way for OKC to have a monster offensive game is to be red hot from the perimeter, but they don’t a good ball movement to generate that many good looks and as a result OKC went 9-26 & 4-18 behind the line in the last two games.

My feeling for tonight’s game is the same that I had in G3: “I think that OKC won’t reach anymore the amazing offensive numbers that they displayed during the postseason”

On the other end, OKC did a better job defensively and it was clear for me that the Heat not only is struggling to knock down jump shots, but they also don’t want to take them. For several times, I saw LeBron James and Dwayne Wade not shooting the ball despite being wide open from +15feet. Not coincidentally, the Heat is shooting 4-16FG (25%) from 10-15 feet and 12-47 FG (25.5%) from 16-23 feet! Miami is just attacking the rim possession after possession! This time they went 23-35 FG at the rim and due to the constant penetration, the Heat grabbed 14 of 41 offensive rebound opportunities and outscored the bigger Thunder on second-chance points! They also attempted 35 free throws (while putting Durant in foul trouble) while hitting 31 of them for a great 88.6% mark.

It will be tough for Miami to have a great offensive performance tonight. Like Miami, OKC will pack the paint to prevent the Heat’s easy points near the basket – they did that more successfully in the second half of the Game 3 and the Heat first field goal was made with more than 6 minutes of action! I don’t know why Serge Ibaka played only 22 minutes in game 3 because his interior presence and shot blocking ability is terrific, but nevertheless OKC had 8 blocks in Game 3! If we add the 5 blocks mark from Miami, we are talking about 13 blocks in one game from both teams – 13 potential field goals were blocked!

Game 3's pace was 86.9, basically the same pace of the first two contests. For tonight, I expect a similar pace and with both teams having problems to generate easy points, I think we will in front of another grind out low scoring game.

Last game was basically a ball game and we should have cashed our play with OKC+4.5. OKC had a better rotation in Game 3, while Lebron and Wade played 44 and 45 minutes. Note that unlike last game, both teams had only one day to rest, so fatigue will be a problem especially for a team that relies their game in driving and attacking the rim. I expect another tight game with OKC having a great chance for an upset. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play and the Thunder on a Single Dime Play tonight.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Oklahoma City Thunder (+3,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline