NBA 05/31 Premium Play: San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 709 San Antonio Spurs @ 710 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected line: 212 points | Oklahoma City by 1 point

***TOP PLAY***

After the final quarter of the game 1 of this series in which the Spurs outscored the Thunder by 39-27, there was the perception that Scott Brooks should have played Ibaka instead of Perkins and because of the fact that the Thunder played “small”, the Spurs attacked unmercifully the rim and scored easy points in the paint to get the win. So for game 2, Scott Brooks thought that his big lineup would be the key for them because it would stop the Spurs’ penetrations and the Thunder used always two big players until this substitution in the third quarter:

5:15 Derek Fisher enters the game for Serge Ibaka 58-78

Check the score... 78-58! Not only the Thunder couldn’t defend the Spurs, but they were also struggling on the offensive end. With (especially) Perkins on the floor, the Spurs torched the Thunder defense in P&R’s by taking advantage of Perkins' lack of speed in rotating. The Spurs' big players are just too skillful and sharp on their decision to pass or shoot the ball. On the offensive end, the lack of talent of the Thunder “bigs” are hurting them because Popovich is simply ignoring those frontcourt players and focus the Spurs’ energy in stopping Westbrook/Durant/Harden. The Thunder was shooting under 40% from the field at the break and after scoring 58 points in the first 31 minutes of the game, the Thunder scored 53 points in the next 17 minutes.

Shortly after the Thunder went small, the "Hack a Splitter" move happened and it was pointed out as one of the biggest reasons why Oklahoma City bounced back and went as close as 6 points in the final quarter. In my opinion, OKC’s good run was the result of bad coaching from Popovich when Pop decided in going back to Duncan after Splitter clanked the sixth of his 12 attempts. It brought Duncan back into the game sooner than he's accustomed to and he was a bit out of rhythm:

2:42 66-80 Tiago Splitter enters the game for Tim Duncan

1:34 73-88 Tim Duncan enters the game for Tiago Splitter

Then Popovich went back to Splitter again to start the fourth quarter, but the Spurs lost their “mojo” for a while. To counter OKC’s small lineup with Ibaka being the center, the Spurs have to exploit the huge edge down low in the matchup Duncan vs Ibaka and Duncan had a subpar game and that decision of bringing him back quite took off his rhythm. 

For tonight’s game, I have no doubts that Brooks won’t use his big lineup the way he used in G2 and I would be surprised if Perkins plays more than 15/20 minutes! OKC’s small lineup will have some problems in avoiding the Spurs’ easy points in the paint, but at least they are capable of scoring at a good rate. OKC had 19 transition plays in G2, but 12 of them were in the second half.

Nevertheless, the Thunder made some contested shots, but their offensive flow isn’t nowhere close to the excellence of the Spurs’ ball movement. Scott Brooks will likely use Ibaka as the primary center in his small ball lineups and he will play Sefolosha instead of Fisher in the clutch. However, all these modifications won’t surprise Greg Popovich… 

On the other end, Popovich has a “hidden” weapon that will neutralize OKC small ball and that weapon is Tim Duncan. I expect Duncan to torch Serge Ibaka tonight and if OKC decides to double team him, Duncan is smart enough to find the open shooter. I think that this will be another shootout tonight. OKC has a great home crowd, but the Spurs are 3 to 6 points better than OKC in neutral floor so they shouldn’t getting 4 points tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking both San Antonio and the Over tonight.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 San Antonio Spurs (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker