Euro 2012 - Quarter Final - Germany vs Greece
First of all, I have a tremendous respect for the Greek team and their fighting spirit. They upset the world of soccer in by 2004 winning the EURO championship and all the politic and financial problems that currently the country is battling makes today’s game even more appellative for the players to have a “die in the field” mindset taking in account that it will be against Germany.
However in the field there will be a complete mismatch favoring Germany in my opinion. I’ve already told yesterday that there was a considerable gap in quality between the Group A teams and the Group B teams that was confirmed by the Portuguese win over Czech Republic. Sure that the final score was “only” 1-0, but for those who watched the game, it was a complete and total domination by the Portuguese team.
For today, I expect Greece to have a complete defensive mindset with all 11 men behind their own midfield while trying to hold a 0-0 draw. On the offensive end, I really don’t expect anything from Greece. They are usually dangerous on set pieces plays, but their best player and the one who is charge of them Karagounis is suspended for today. So, it will basically be the capacity of Greece on the defensive end that will dictate the outcome of the game and in my opinion they are far from being a great defensive team especially when compared to their 2004 team.
Back in 2004, Zagorakis and the youngsters at the time Katsouranis and Karagounis were masterful in covering the field and gave the Greek defense some pivotal protection. Makos, Maniatis and Katsouranis will be the trio on the center, but this unit not only is incapable to hold the ball, as they don’t have the same tactical discipline required to play against a team like Germany. Sure that they were “strong” enough to hold Russia in their last game, however take note that Russia had 62% of ball possession, attempted 25 shots and had 12 corners and Germany in on another level in terms of offensive efficiency.
Germany is now an improved team that can exchange the ball like Spain usually does, they play fast and off the ball and they have two players at back (Lahm and Hummels) who are capable to go upfront and make some damage.
My biggest concern with them has been their incapacity to create more danger from the wings: Podolski and Muller are out of form in my opinion! I’ve just checked the German starting lineup and what did Joachim Löw do? He benched both Podolski and Muller by giving the starting nod to Reus and Schurrle! These two young players are dynamic, more physically capable and these changes will surprise Greece. The decision to start Klose instead of Gomez was expected because Klose is a better player than Gomez in build up plays and his passing skill will be very useful today. Plus with Gomez it would be “easier” for the Greek defense to defend a more static player.
Even with all the motivation Greece will have for today, I believe Germany is by far the better team and they will prove that on the field today. Therefore, I'll take the German team on the spread in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Germany (-1.25) @ -124 / 1.806 on Pinnacle
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