NBA - 503 Miami Heat @ 504 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected line: 192 points | Oklahoma City by 2 points
The Game 1 of the NBA Finals had a pace factor of 85.82, so it was a half court game where both teams committed few turnovers (10 and 11), but with OKC having a remarkable 123.1 offensive ratings, so no wonder they won the game, while the score went over the total posted.
Not even against the Spurs, Oklahoma City was able to reach such high mark and they had 2 key numbers that they will hardly repeat tonight in such remarkable fashion: 24-4 edge on fast break points and 26-36 FG at the rim! Miami decided to switch in every pick n roll and it was a piece of cake for Durant when faced against a small defender like Wade. Why in the hell would Miami switch in a pick set by Derek Fisher?! Tonight I expect some adjustments from Miami and LeBron to have more time on Durant.
Having said that, the game was essentially a ballgame until the last stretch where OKC won practically all the “loose ball plays”:
11:06 73-74 Russell Westbrook misses 15-foot two point shot
11:03 73-76 Kevin Durant offensive rebound
11:03 73-76 Kevin Durant makes two point shot
10:26 73-76 Kevin Durant misses 22-foot jumper
10:26 73-76 Nick Collison offensive rebound
10:12 73-78 Thabo Sefolosha makes layup (Derek Fisher assists)
6:35 81-84 Russell Westbrook misses 17-foot jumper
6:33 81-84 Nick Collison offensive rebound
6:28 81-87 Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)
Those defensive switches from MIA killed their defensive positioning and the Heat couldn’t get a mere defensive rebound! Also Kevin Durant was amazing and he really is the best offensive player in the league.
With a similar pace for tonight’s game, we have automatically some value with the Under. Yes, OKC’s offense has been amazing, but in a half court game 196 points is just too high in my opinion. With some lucky breaks, MIA could also discuss the game into the final possessions and I think that this is what will happen tonight. Therefore, I'll take both Miami and the Under tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Miami Heat (+5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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