Euro 2012 - Group A - Poland vs Greece
This is the opening match of the tournament with the home team Poland being favored to win against Greece. Historically, this is a tough spot for the home team because there is a lot of pressure to perform and this can hurt the Polish team because they aren’t talented enough on the offensive end to dominate the ball possession and create chances to score against a defensive minded team like the Greek side.
There won’t be any surprise about Greece for this tournament. Portuguese coach Fernando Santos is a good tactician and he built the team around a good defense and a powerful defensive hard working midfielder’s trio: Katsouranis, Karagounis and Maniatis! This unit isn’t particular fast with only Maniatis being an effective runner, only Karagounis has the ability to create something by himself but the trio really excels in the defensive positioning. The trio at the front are more focused in the defensive close outs than actually in keeping the ball possession. They are dangerous in counter moves, but they don’t offer much.
Greece looks comfortable in not having the ball possession and they will have this approach for today’s game. Poland plays at home, they are the favorites, so they’ll have the pressure to control the game…and Greece will be fine with that approach!
During the qualification, Greece's most powerful opponent was Croatia and the Greeks didn’t allow a single game in the two head to head games. Set pieces is one of the keys for the Greeks - the 2-0 victory over Croatia was sealed with two goals from set-pieces plays!
On the other side, Poland has a great striker in Lewandowski who is coming from a good club season in Dortmund and they also have a good right wing duo by right back Piszczek and right winger Blaszczkowski - they both play in Dortmund as well.
Poland plays in a high tempo and has a good stamina. However, their biggest problem for this contest is that like Greece, they are more suited to play good defense and attack in transition. I expect them to struggle to find open spaces on offense against the laid back attitude from the Greeks.
We are talking about two defensive minded teams that will struggle on offense. They are likely bound to create more danger in set pieces plays than properly in the rest of the game! The first game of the group stages is crucial and a loss could be devastating for any team’s aspirations in a mental perspective. If a draw persists in the second half I expect both teams to not take any further risks. I wouldn’t be surprised if a 0-0 draw happens, so I think we have some value with the UNDER 2 Goals in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2 Goals @ -122 / 1.82 on Pinnacle
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