Soccer Euro 2012 Free Premium Play 06/24: England vs Italy

Euro 2012 - Quarter Final - England vs Italy

***SPLIT THE WAGER***

After three one-sided quarter-finals with all the three games being decided in the regular time, I believe this contest will be much tighter and the oddmakers are basically saying this exactly. 

However, I really think that we have some value with the draw, as according to my estimations I have the Draw with a 45% chance, England 30% and Italy with 25% of chances to win. England is struggling to create chances in build up plays, but they are a good tactical team with a balanced defensive positioning. They now have Wayne Rooney back on the front hoping that he can create something useful for them.

I’ve just checked the Italian lineup and they will use a 4-4-2 formation while using a diamond formation in the midfield. This kind of lineup gave some problems to Italy on their friendly matches prior to this tournament because by using 4 central midfielders, Italy has some problems to cover the wings. Russia torched them and that promptly forced Italy to chance their formation for this tournament. Obviously, England doesn’t have the same talent on the wings that Russia has, but they still have some edge on this department.

The X factor for this contest will be Andrea Pirlo’s influence on the game. Scott Parker will likely be close to him or even Rooney/Wellbeck will drop back on his position to guard Pirlo. The problem is that Pirlo has played all minutes for Italy in the group stage (3 x 90min) and it was quite evident that he lacks the proper stamina to dominate the game the whole 90 minutes, so I give some edge to England on the latter moments of the game.

I expect a defensive struggle battle with few chances to score. Both teams have terrific goalkeepers and I wouldn’t be surprised in a 0-0 full time draw. Therefore, I'll take the Draw on this contest! Split the wager between Half Time Draw and Full Time Draw. As I expect little to none scoring chances on this game, I'll also take the Under in here. Looking, as I believe England has a small edge over Italy, I'll also take England PK on a small bet.

Pick: 1 unit on England PK @ +100 / 2.00 on Pinnacle

Pick: 1,5 units on Half Time Draw @ -106 / 1.943 on Pinnacle

Pick: 1,5 units on Full Time Draw @ +200 / 3.00 on Pinnacle

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2 Goals @ -111 / 1.901 on Pinnacle