NBA - 719 Boston Celtics @ 720 Miami Heat
Projected line: Miami by 12 points | 176 Points
Projected line: Miami by 12 points | 176 Points
Somehow the Heat didn’t bring their best defensive energy in the first half of both games 3 and 4. The Celtics scored 55 and 61 points at the break in those games and all the defensive stuff that the Heat employed was laughable. They didn’t trap Rondo, they didn’t rebound well and they allowed Garnett to manhandle them in the paint.
After being down 4-18 early on game 4, coach Spoelstra didn’t resist putting his ridiculous small lineup on the floor with James being the center and defending 1*1 Kevin Garnett. While the Heat at least was able to score some points, the fact is that this lineup has very limited presence in the paint on both ends of the floor.
After easily dominating the boards in the first two games of the series w/57% and 53% in reb/rate, the Heat were outrebounded in games 3 and 4 (w/42% and 47.5%) so I don’t think that Spoelstra will use again such small ball configuration, plus it looks like Chris Bosh will return tonight.
However in the second half of last game, Miami decided to play defense and Boston was in trouble. After having a 131.3 offensive rating in the first half, the Celtics were held to 67.5 in the second half and overtime. With a traditional lineup with Haslem playing at center, the Celtics just couldn’t dominate the boards’ battle: after having a stellar 40.0% offensive rebounding% in the first half, the Celtics had only 12.5% in the rest of the game.
Obviously, Boston is still having problems to maintain the same level of energy throughout the game but fortunately for them they built such a big lead that they could hang on and finish off the job in the overtime.
I expect Miami to bring the same intensity and energy of the second half G4 for tonight’s game from the start so I don’t think that we will see one team reaching the 30-points mark in the first quarter.
Chris Bosh likely will play tonight but limited minutes, nevertheless it will be another “big” body for Miami so Spoelstra will use a traditional lineup for the game and the Heat will be able to dominate the glass quite easily.
With a better start from Miami I don’t think that Boston will be able to hang around for 48 minutes tonight. For three straight games the Celtics were leading large at the break: game 2 53-46; game 3 55-42 and game 4 61-47! This enabled them to catch a break when Miami increased their aggressiveness. In a potential scenario of a tight game at the break, then the Celtics will be in a trouble in the second half. I also do not discount the fact that late in the game, the Celtics would be thinking in saving some energy for game 6 at home and waive a white flag.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 720 Miami Heat (-7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 DimesPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 179.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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