NBA 06/17 Premium Play: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat

NBA - 505 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 506 Miami Heat

Projected line: 185 points | Miami by 1 point

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

In my opinion the “story” of game 2 was the defensive adjustments made by the Heat: Oklahoma City had an offensive rating of 109.3 – their lowest mark in their last 7 games! In game 1, Oklahoma City scored 24 fast break points on 20 transition plays in which they scored a great 1.15 PPP mark. The Thunder also scored 56 points in the paint with a remarkable 26-36 FG mark at the rim against the second best defensive team during the regular season in this area. But those two edges in Game 1 were well solved by Miami in Game 2 because OKC scored only 11 fast break points on 14 transition plays, with “only” 1.00PPP. Also OKC scored just 32 points in the paint for a bad 15-29 FG performance at the rim.

The Heat got back quickly on defense and their defensive strategy was better. They constantly collapse to defend the middle and it was tough for OKC to score near the basket. After going 7-10 FG at the rim in Game 1, Russell Westbrook went 6-14 FG in G2! Obviously by crashing down the middle, the Heat gave some space on the outside and that’s why OKC attempted 26 3pts shots (2nd highest mark in these playoffs), but Miami can live with that because OKC isn’t that dangerous from the outside and they don’t have a great ball movement – just 13 assists in Game 2.

I expect Miami to have the same game plan and honestly I think that OKC won’t reach anymore the amazing offensive numbers that they displayed during the postseason. However, I expect a reaction from OKC on the defensive end tonight!

The media is pointing out that OKC’s big lineup has been torched by Miami in this series, but Scott Brooks won’t likely change dramatically his rotation. I remember that after being 0-2 down against the Spurs while facing the exact problem, OKC was able to dominate the Spurs without changing anything relevant. In my opinion it was a matter of effort and commitment. OKC can’t keep giving Shane Battier wide open threes and at the same time allowing LeBron James shooting 7-9 FG at the rim or Chris Bosh grabbing 7 offensive rebounds! A trade off is inevitable between the two things, but by being smoked by both is inexplicable. I expect a much better defensive performance from the Thunder tonight!

Despite some issues with ball movement and Westbrook’s poor decision making, OKC is way better down the stretch than Miami who looked tired in both games. I’m counting that in tonight’s game will be a tight game decided in the last possession and so we have some value with OKC while this should be the lowest scoring game in the series. Therefore, I'll be taking both Oklahoma City in a Single Dime and the Under on a Double Dime Play!     

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Oklahoma City Thunder (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes