UEFA Champions League Final: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

SOCCER – UEFA Champions League Final: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

For this contest, I’ve made the decision to make a play w/ Real Madrid this Wednesday, but because there were some news regarding the availability of Atletico’s striker Diego Costa (supposedly he is fit to play today), I knew that we would get a better line near game time. At the time, Real Madrid was priced @ +100 / 2.00 @ Pinnacle Sports, and right now, we could get them @ +117 / 2.17. No doubt that the wait was worth for us…

Regarding the matchups and the game…

Atletico Madrid has won the Spanish League and this achievement was simply epic in my opinion. They are the ultimate example of a “TEAM” as they have won the domestic league despite having inferior overall talent on their roster when compared to Real Madrid & Barcelona.

Their biggest strength relies on the incredible work rate of all their players. Their defensive pressing is just tremendous as they don’t concede many chances for their opponents to create quality shots. However, this will be their biggest problem for this contest!!!

I don’t think that Atletico will have the proper “aggressiveness” and physical condition to hang around against a “rested” Real Madrid team. Note that w/ them completely focused in winning La Liga, Atletico simply couldn’t win the L3 games of the competition. I understand that the draw @ Barcelona in the last round felt like a win for them, but prior to that game, Atletico lost @ Levante and draw at home against Malaga – two games in which Atletico would have won easily early / mid on the season. They gave everything to win the domestic league and I believe that this will have a price for them in here…

On the exactly opposite side we have Real Madrid… After crushing Bayern Munchen @ Germany, Real Madrid was so focused in winning “La Decima” that they completely “shut down the chip” and didn’t care to be competitive @ La Liga. This is was weird to understand because as we know, both Atletico and Barcelona struggled in the last rounds, and a focused Real Madrid could really have won La Liga! While Atletico is expected to be a little drained emotionally IMO, we have a Real Madrid team that will be ready for the challenge.

It looks like Diego Costa will play today after a “miraculous” trip to Serbia during the week. However, I just don’t think that he’ll ready to be a major factor in the game... Note that he “forced” to play @ Barcelona in their last game and got subbed w/ just 16 minutes of action. He represents almost 35% of the team’s total goals for the season, so the fact that he is way far from being @100% is a huge blow for the team. Atletico’s offensive threats in the last games have been almost exclusively via set pieces and this says it all about their lack of offensive production lately.

Obviously, I expect Atletico to bring a defensive minded game plan for this contest. Trying to play an “open game” w/ Real Madrid is just a kamikaze idea, because Real would crush them in transition w/ CR7 & Bale – that’s the biggest reason why Real humiliated Bayern @ semis w/ 4-0 win @ Germany.

For Real Madrid, the absence of Xabi Alonso can’t be ignored in here especially because I don’t like his natural replacement Illarramendi, who lacks the proper competitiveness and experience for this kind of games. I would have enjoyed more if Sami Khedira took the spot but either way, the absolutely key players for Real in the midfield are Angel Di Maria and Luka Modric and both are expected to play.

I expect this contest to be a tight one w/ few chances for both teams to score. However, w/ Diego Costa banged up and w/ also Arda Turan projected to not start the game, Atletico is really shorthanded on the front. The same thing cannot be said about Real Madrid w/ Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and K. Benzema. This trio automatically will generate some scoring chances and sooner or later, one of them will make the difference and therefore, that’s why I’m taking the Real Madrid to win this contest! 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Real Madrid ML @  +119 / 2.19 on 5 Dimes