NBA Free Premium Play 05/30: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

Indiana  at Miami

NBA - 521 Indiana Pacers @ 522 Miami Heat Play #1 I expect Miami to close the deal tonight and win the series 4-2 without much trouble… I’ve made a mini-recap about G5 that is the blueprint for tonight’s game: “I’ve just watched yesterday’s NBA game between MIA & IND and some weird stuff happened: Lebron James w/ foul trouble with just 24 minutes of action; the occasional Paul George’s random offensive explosive game w/ 37 points scored, he had one +30 pts game vs. WAS and another one vs. WAS, so I guess this type of game was due to happen in this series”  IND was able to score 93 points for a nice Off. Rtg = 114.4! However, they didn’t show anything new or surprised the Heat… They had only 13 assists and Roy Hibbert isn’t an offensive threat for them. They scored 93 points primarily because Paul George went off and scored 37 points while hitting 11-19 FG (58%) in CONTESTED SHOTS according to NBA.com! Finally, the Pacers dominated the boards (as usual) w/ 55% reb/rate. Why I don’t think IND will be competitive tonight: 1) Obviously, LeBron James! James played only 24 minutes and scored just 7 points – career low’s for him! I don’t need to say that he will bounce back tonight b/c this is just common sense… However, note that Paul George is coming from a monumental effort in the last game in which he logged a game high 45 minutes!! He is due for a natural shooting regression and the fact that he will face a “fresh” LeBron James won’t help him either. Also, without Chris Andersen & James in foul trouble, MIA was really undersized in the last game. After all, James was averaging 8 rebounds per game in the first 4 games of the series and so, IND had a nice spot to dominate down low! The fact that they scored a series high 42 points in the paint in G5 wasn’t a “coincidence”! 2) Effort Levels! I’ve mentioned last night that SAS would want to play w/ nice tempo in order to explore their superior depth over OKC, and once the second quarter started, they put an extra gear w/ their second unit.  I expect a similar scenario for tonight’s game… In the last game, 3 IND’s starters logged at least 41 minutes of action in G5 with Hibbert and George Hill playing 38 minutes each! (IND’s bench scored only 6 points)! With them relying so heavily in their starters, I expect a natural physical letdown from IND in here, especially w/ a “fresh” LeBron James on the court, and w/ MIA having more depth right now (Lewis, Allen, Cole and Birdman if he plays are all playing quite well in this series). 3) Referees! I expect MIA to get some natural “home calls” after what happened in the last game @IND w/ LeBron James. I really don’t think that MIA will get only 8 FT’s tonight as I expect them to be super aggressive in here, particularly James. My fair line for this contest is Miami having a classic blowout line of 10/12 points and so, I’m taking the Heat as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Miami Heat (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker