NBA Premium Card 05/05

NBA - 701 Washington Wizards @ 702 Indiana Pacers

Play #1

I had a small lean w/ WAS in this first game of the series but I really don’t like their “spot” for tonight’s contest, especially because I expect them to be a bit “rusty” on the offensive end.

WAS’s defensive game plan won’t change anything from facing the Bulls in the first round and now facing the Pacers. They will be focused in slowing down IND’s frontcourt while they did a great job in doing that vs. CHI’s frontcourt unit. The Pacers won the last 2 games vs. ATL, but note that they still struggled to hit outside shots w/ 6-20 & 3-18 from 3pts land, so we are not dealing w/ a confident shooting team right now.

On the other side, the Pacers’ defense has now a more favorable matchup when compared to the Hawks. Roy Hibbert can play regular minutes as the Wizards will play w/ traditional 2 post players w/ Nene & Gortat and so, IND’s defense will improve a bit in this series. Nevertheless, note that the Pacers’ adjusted quite well in the last 2 games of the series vs. ATL as they have allowed 88 and 80 points in those 2 points. WAS had 5 days off to rest and prepare tonight’s contest…. They are a “pure” jump shooting so having so much time off could work against them tonight as well.

My fair line in this contest is 180 points and so, we are getting some nice value w/ the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 703 Los Angeles Clippers @ 704 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #2 & #3

Probably, this is going to be the best series of the second round but for this first contest, I really think that the Thunder has a tremendous edge w/ a more favorable spot and especially, via adjustments for this G1.

Both teams are coming from G7’s this past Saturday, but I think that LAC’s had to spend more energy in their series vs. GSW than the Thunder in their game vs. shorthanded MEM.

Matchup wise, OKC don’t need to adjust that many stuff vs. LAC’s 2 post players Griffin & Jordan because the Grizzlies played w/ ZBO & Gasol down low. However, the same thing cannot be said about the Clippers because they are coming from a series in which they faced GSW’s ultra small ball lineup w/ Green & Lee on the frontcourt and now, they’ll face OKC’s huge size from their frontcourt players. Also, LAC’s perimeter defense will have some problems to stop Westbrook’s dribble drives moves.

I expect OKC to win this contest by a “safe margin” while w/ both teams being a bit tired and without time to make the proper adjustments for this contest, I feel that we will deal w/ a relatively low scoring game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 213 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 04 Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes