NBA - 705 Brooklyn Nets @ 706 Miami Heat
Play #1 & #2
Note that in the first game of the reg. season series we were dealing w/ a Nets having Brook Lopez in the lineup; Then in G2, the Heat started w/ Cole + Ray Allen + Rashard Lewis! In G3, the Heat was almost 100% healthy but still Udonis Haslem didn’t play, while in G4, D. Wade didn’t play in that game, so basically, all 4 games didn’t have both teams @ 100%.
While the Heat is rested, the Nets are coming from a tough 7-game series against the Raptors. The constant offensive edge in that series for the Nets was Joe Johnson but I don’t expect him to dominate vs. the Heat going against D. Wade! Jason Kidd inserted Alan Anderson in the starting lineup mainly for offensive purposes, but in this series I really expect Shaun Livingston to assume a bigger role… the trade off is quite obvious: better defense vs. worst offense.
According to my numbers, the 4 H2H’s contests between these two teams in the regular season were all really SLOW PACED affairs! As an example, please note in the last H2H in the reg. season, despite hitting 53% of their shots including 9 three pointers, the Nets scored only 88 points!
We can expect tonight’s contest to be another slow paced affair and so, w/ a totals line of 192 points, both teams will have to be extremely efficient on the offensive end! I expect the Heat to come out a little bit rusty while I really expect the Heat to be solid defensively w/ my fair line being 190 points.
My fair line for this contest is MIA-10/-12 as this is a great spot for them to make a statement game and clean up all the “talking” about their inability to defeat the Nets.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Miami Heat (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NBA - 707 Portland Trail Blazers @ 708 San Antonio Spurs
Play #3
Because the Mavericks caught the Spurs by surprise in the first games of the series w/ all their switching stuff on the defensive end, the Spurs’ offense struggled to be consistent as they committed a ton of TO’s and averaged a poor Off. Rtg. of 107.3 in the first 4 games vs. DAL.
Then the offensive machine that we were used to appreciate in the last part of the regular returned w/ a vengeance: SAS’s Off. Rtg. in L3 games of the series were 120.9, 121.3 and 131.2!
The Spurs took care of the ball, hit their outside shots and averaged 46 points in the paint in those 3 games! For this contest, w/ all the offensive momentum that the Spurs are carrying, I don’t think that POR’s defense is capable to slow down SAS’s offense.
Tony Parker’s game 7 was a beauty to watch w/ 11-19 FG & 10-13 FT for 32 points… good luck D. Lillard in trying to slow down Parker for tonight!
However, I also expect the Blazers to be quite efficient offensively in this series. Surprisingly, the Spurs had some serious defensive problems vs. DAL especially on the perimeter and this Blazers team w/ a red hot Lillard will explore this unexpected defensive weakness from the Spurs!
My fair line for this contest is 210 points and so, I think that we have some good value in this first game of the series.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 206.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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