NBA - 711 Los Angeles Clippers @ 712 Oklahoma City Thunder
Play #2
I was completely wrong in the first game of this series as OKC was simply horrible w/ their defense vs. LAC.
I’ve watched the last H2H between these two teams in the regular season in which OKC went to LA and won the game mostly due to their defense – they held LAC to “just” 101 points & 41.9% from the field!
In G1, apparently OKC guarded the perimeter like they were still playing MEM… they were super passive and their PNR defense was truly awful: 11-15 FG for 1.8 PPP! Also, I don’t think that Chris Paul will repeat again his 8-9 mark from 3pts land! For tonight’s contest, I expect OKC to bounce back quite naturally on the defensive end.
I also expect OKC’s supporting cast to be a bit better tonight while LAC’s is primed for a natural letdown after stealing G1. My fair line for this contest is OKC-8/-10 and so, I’m taking OKC in here as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Oklahoma City Thunder (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Washington Wizards @ 710 Indiana Pacers
Play #1
We lost w/ the Under by 14 points in the first game of this series, but note that w/ less than a minute to go, the score was 94-84 (178 points) and then the Pacers hit 4 three pointers while the Wizards went 8 for 8 from the FT line!
For tonight’s contest the biggest adjustment will be made from IND regarding Roy Hibbert:
"I have to get (Hibbert) some looks to get him going some," Vogel said. "Everyone has to understand, he wasn't 0 for 11 last night, he was 0 for 2. He's the fifth option in our starting five offense."
Honestly, I don’t think that Hibbert will have a big impact on the offensive end in this series, but w/ the Pacers being focused to feed him down low, I expect IND to play @ slower pace tonight. According to my numbers, the Pace factor of G1 was 94.8 – way above my expectations.
The biggest problem for the Pacers in G1 (apart from letting WAS to hit 10-16 from 3pts) was their inability to get rebounds. WAS had a remarkable 61% reb/rate w/ 17 offensive boards! Drew Gooden alone had more offensive rebounds vs. entire IND team! This is where Hibbert could really make a difference because when he is out, most likely Luis Scola will get his minutes – not a good thing for IND regarding this “issue”.
On the other side, IND’s offensive problems are real against a Wizards’ defense that is coming from a great defensive series vs. CHI in the first round. Note that the Pacers scored only 20 points in the paint!
Because of the high scoring outcome in G1, we are getting 187 points – good enough for me to make a play w/ the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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