NBA Premium Card 05/10

NBA - 721 Miami Heat @ 722 Brooklyn Nets

Play #1 & #2

We’ve won our Top Play w/ Under in G2 of this series and as expected, the game was a really slow paced affair –according to my numbers, it was the second slowest paced game @ postseason so far. Note that the Heat hit 49.3% of their shots, 42% from behind the line and just 8 TO’s and still, they scored “only” 94 points!

I don’t think that the pace factor for tonight’s contest will be that different, because this will be game #7 between these two teams, and all of them were pure half court contests and obviously, both teams would need to be super efficient on the offensive end in order for the game to have a high scoring outcome.

In such half court style, the Nets simply don’t have the weapons to beat the Heat, especially w/ Kevin Garnett being a complete non-factor in this series. The Nets don’t have a proper rim protector in this series! The Heat scored 52 points in the paint in G1 and apparently, the Nets did a better job in G2 as they held the Heat to “just” 34 points in the paint in G2. However note that MIA went 14-18 FG @ the rim in that game (78% mark!).

In both games, the Nets were able to be competitive in the first half but they fell apart later… this is not a mere coincidence… the Heat have an extra gear while the Nets lacks the proper “athleticism” to beat the Heat.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721 Miami Heat (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 723 San Antonio Spurs @ 724 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #3

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** 

The Spurs struggled to defend the Mavericks in the first round until the “game 7” happened…. Since then, the Spurs’ defense has been in pure elite mode w/ Def. Rtg’s of 101.5, 94.3 and 101.5!

They are doing a great job against the Blazers in this series and honestly, I don’t expect the Blazers suddenly to figure out a way to crush the Spurs’ defense…

I do expect the Blazers to be more competitive tonight, but this will happen via their defense! For some strange reason, in the first 2 games of this series, the Blazers “tried” to run w/ the Spurs and they literally, they got crushed in both games even before half time. POR doesn’t have the depth to run vs. SAS! For tonight, it looks like Mo Williams will miss the game and so, POR will be without their “6th man”…Earl Watson will play and the trade off is quite evident between these two players: better defense vs. worst defense.

In my opinion, POR’s coach Stotts will be forced to change the approach of his team especially w/ so little depth coming off the bench. I expect the Blazers to intentionally slow down things and establish LMA down low while defensively; they’ll try to put SAS’s offense @ half court because so far, SAS has scored 33 fast break points vs. 17 from the Blazer!

My fair line for this contest is 202 points and therefore, we have the proper edge to make a Top Play w/ the Under in here!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker