NBA - 517 Miami Heat @ 518 Indiana Pacers
Play #1 & #2
So far in the series, the Pacers’ defense simply can’t defend the Heat, as MIA had 109.2, 110.6, 120.2 & 125.1 Off. Rtg’s in the first 4 games of the series! MIA scored 54 points in the paint in the first game and since then, they have scored “just” 32, 40 & 38 pts. However, they have compensated such decrease w/ better outside shooting – 26-62 3pts (42%) vs. 6-23 3pts in G1.
The most important factor for me is related w/ Roy Hibbert! Really, it doesn’t matter if Hibbert is on the court or not… actually, MIA is scoring @ better rates w/ Hibbert on the court! This simply didn’t happen in the past – a good sign of how MIA’s offense has solved this chronic problem for them.
MIA scored 102 points in the last game while shooting 46.4% FG, but they were hitting above +50% FG before the garbage time arrived. Note that MIA scored only 8 points in the last 7:41 of the game (at the time, they were winning 94-71!)… if MIA ended the game shooting +50% FG, it would have been the third time in 4 games in this series!
Because Luis Scola did well offensively in G4, it wouldn’t shock me if IND’s coach Vogel give up of Hibbert during the game in order to improve IND’s offensive game. I expect IND to be more aggressive tonight by playing at home and get at least +20 FT’s.
Still, it won’t be enough. I really don’t think that they have the proper confidence to beat the Heat right now… they are making excuses for everything:
“After Game 4, Paul George spent most of his press conference bemoaning the officiating. He got fined $25,000 for suggesting the free-throw disparity (Miami’s 34 attempts to Indina’s 17) was due to some “home cooking.”;
David West had some similar things to say, noting that their must be some “new rules” at play as a reason that the Pacers sent the Heat at the line so much.;
They are even questioning their own coach:
“Roy Hibbert, after the loss, wanted to talk about the game plan and his lack of touches as the reason that he scored 0 points for the fourth time in 17 playoff games this season. “
I expect both Ray Allen and Chris Andersen to play tonight while MIA will finish the job in 5 games w/ my Totals fair line = 186/188 points.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Miami Heat (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Over 183.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment