NBA Premium Card 05/24

NBA - 509 Indiana Pacers @ 540 Miami Heat

Play #1 & #2

I expect the Pacers to be super competitive today and therefore, having the chance to get 7 full points for them = nice value for us.

I took Miami in G2 and even though they won the game and subsequently, we cashed w/ the Play, I really didn’t expect them to struggle so much…  Actually, The Pacers led 75-72 with 5:33 left in the game, but Miami went on a 10-0 run to put the game out just out of reach. That run happened after the Paul George “incident” and also David West being poked in the eye and being replaced by Luis Scola didn’t help the cause - The Pacers didn’t have any rhythm and aggressiveness in both ends of the floor. Nevertheless, the Pacers were super competitive despite shooting just 40% FG vs. a sharp shooting Heat team that hit 51% of their shots!

The Pacers simply dominated the boards (once again) w/ 57% reb/rate and they improved dramatically in protecting the rim – after allowing 54 pts in the paint in G1, IND allowed just 32 points in G2!

In my opinion, the resting time will be the X factor for tonight’s game and it will help way more the Pacers than the Heat! I’m not talking only about Paul George’s concussion issue…

So far in the series: IND starters are +23 in 57 minutes vs., all other lineups -16 in 39 minutes!

MIA’s second unit has been a factor in the series w/ Chris Andersen and Norris Cole vs. IND’s ineffective bench. IND’s starters are logging heavy minutes – 4 of them played more than 40 minutes in G2 and so, having the chance to rest 3 full days will help more IND IMO.

Last game was a super slow paced contest w/ Pace Factor = 78.5 according to my numbers – it was the slowest paced game of the postseason for both teams! I expect a similar pace for tonight and so, both teams would have to be extremely effective on the offensive end to hit this totals line of 183 points. My fair line for this contest is 180 points and MIA being favored by 3 or 4 points and therefore, I’m taking both the Pacers and the Under in here as my Single Dime Plays!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Indiana Pacers (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 183 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada