NBA Premium Card 05/27

NBA - 515 San Antonio Spurs @ 516 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1 & #2

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Serge Ibaka returned in the last game and there is no doubt that he had a tremendous impact in both ends of the floor. He was great shooting the ball from mid/long range and ended the game w/ 6-7 FG – something that Collison / Perkins / Adams couldn’t offer such quality. He was also a key piece on the defensive end (as usual).

However, the biggest difference in the last game was the addition of Reggie Jackson to the starting lineup in the place of Thabo Sefolosha (who didn’t play a single minute!). W/ Ibaka & Jackson on the court, more than being better on the defensive end, OKC is way more dangerous offensively right now as only Perkins is a non-offensive threat for them. Even Jeremy Lamb received 18 minutes from S. Brooks – a good sign that OKC is more focused on the offensive end vs. SAS right now.

Regardless what SAS does on the defensive end, OKC is now more prepared and ready to be effective on offense – something that didn’t happen in the first two games of the series.

The biggest difference in my opinion for tonight will be related w/ SAS offense!

It was quite naturally that SAS struggled a bit in the last game w/ the presence of Serge Ibaka down low. After shooting 89% & 68% FG at the rim in the first two games of the series, SAS hit just 56% FG in the last game! Surely, I expect Popovich to adjust properly in terms of floor spacing… still, note that Ibaka is far from being @ 100%! I’ve noticed several plays in which Ibaka simply didn’t move and offered his usual excellent ability of team help defense.

Despite struggling a bit to score near the basket, the biggest problem for SAS in G3 was their inability to hit good looking outside shots: SAS went just 3-16 FG from 16-23 feet! Also, according to NBA.com, SAS went 13-14 FG in uncontested shots – 32% FG vs. 19-34 FG from OKC (a tremendous 56% mark!). While SAS keeps generating wide open shots for their perimeter players, I expect a natural bounce back from them in this area and so, I think that they will extremely competitive in here in a shootout affair.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 San Antonio Spurs (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker