NBA Premium Card 05/20

NBA - 505 Miami Heat @ 506 Indiana Pacers

Play #1

The Pacers’ offense was the main story of the first game as they scored 107 points w/ Off. Rtg. of 124.8. I was impressed w/ the way the Pacers quickly passed the ball and get past MIA’s great ball pressure to IND’s ball handlers. I can’t ignore the fact that MIA was lazy and way too slow in rotations, but still, IND’s offense did a good job in that game.

Obviously, we can expect MIA to be a bit better defensively especially because LeBron James most likely won’t guard David West on the post, this task will be for Udonis Haslem while James will match w/ Paul George. I also don’t expect IND to hit 6-9 FG from 16-23 feet and 8-19 from behind the line…

IND’s obsession in crashing the boards worked pretty well for them as they grabbed 7 offensive boards (despite shooting +50% FG) and this will not change during the series. The problem is that they will be exposed w/ transition defense and MIL explored that in G1 by scoring 21 fast break points!

What I liked from MIA in G1 was their ability to hit shots near the basket, something that was not “supposed” to happen! MIA scored 54 points in the paint while shooting 22-26 FG (85%!!!) @ the rim! Note that Roy Hibbert played 39 minutes so his presence down low wasn’t enough to stop MIA from scoring easily down low.

MIA failed to hit outside shots w/ just 6-23 3pts (26.1%) & just 16-26 FG in uncontested shots (44.4%) (vs. 12-21 FG 57.1% from IND) and they also went just 15x to the FT line. I expect MIA to be way more aggressive tonight and get +20’s FT’s while they will be a bit better from behind the line – Bosh went 0-5 from 3pts in G1 and in ALL of his attempts, he was WIDE OPEN!

I expect MIA to bounce back tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Miami Heat (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes