NBA Premium Card 05/09

NBA - 713 Brooklyn Nets @ 714 Miami Heat

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

As expected, the first game of this series was a pure half court slow paced style, and this is why our play w/ Under 193 got pushed even though the Heat connected 57% of their shots and the Nets hit 47% of their shots. W/ this kind of offensive efficiency, our Under play was supposed to be doomed but that was not the case.

Obviously, I expect the tempo of tonight’s game to be quite similar as really all the first 5 H2H games (4 reg. season + 1 playoff) were all pure half court affairs. The biggest difference is that I don’t expect both teams to be super sharp offensively in here, especially the Heat.

The biggest story of G1 was how the Heat scored so easily near the basket: the Heat scored 52 of their 107 points in the paint. Miami took 35 shots in close and converted nearly 69 percent of those tries. Almost 50 percent of the Heat's shots came from inside the restricted area!

We can expect some defensive adjustments from BKN tonight (from Deron Williams):

"We gave up too many layups and too many paint touches," he reaffirmed about his team's Game 1 107-86 loss, watching a shot swish through as his players warmed up. "So we got to give a better game in Game 2 if we want any chance to win that game."

My fair line for this contest is 186/188 points and so, we have the proper edge to make a Top Play w/ the Under in G2 of this series!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 715 Portland Trail Blazers @ 716 San Antonio Spurs

Play #2 

The Spurs really turned a page in their game 7 against the Mavericks… their dominance against the Blazers in both ends of the floor in G1 of the series was simply a continuation of their awesome “momentum” and flow from one series to the other one and I really don’t think that this won’t change for tonight.

 SAS defense was focused in slowing down POR’s shooters and they did a great job as POR hit 4-16 from 3pts. Obviously, by dealing w/ LMA 1*1, Aldridge will have some good offensive numbers (he had 12-25 FG for 32 points), but still, that game plan worked great for the Spurs.

On the other end, Tony Parker just killed Damian Lillard w/ 13-24 FG for 33 points & 9 assists. Eventually, I expect POR to change Parker’s defensive assignment but this will free up SAS’s shooters! Note that SAS is hitting 32-72 (44.4%) from 3pts in L4 games in these playoffs!

My fair line for this contest is SAS-9/-10 points and therefore, I’m taking the Spurs in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker