NBA Premium Card 04/29

NBA - 507 Washington Wizards @ 508 Chicago Bulls

Play #1

For this contest I’m riding w/ the Under once again after losing every single Under play in this series.

The pace factor in the first 4 games of the series have been pretty consistent – all 4 games were slow paced affairs played almost exclusively @ half court.

We can say that the Bulls are having some (expected) problems to score vs. WAS so far. Their perimeter shooters are really struggling (except the Mike Dunleavy G3 game) while the Wizards are doing a solid job in protecting the rim (39.5 pts paint per game allowed in this series) especially in slowing down Noah’s passing abilities.

In the last game, Gibson went off w/ 13-16 FG for 32 points but note that without Nene on the court and w/ Booker being the starter, WAS had Gooden & Al Harrington @ frontcourt backups, so we can understand that Gibson had favorable matchups.

For this particular matchup, Nene will be back after being suspended and actually, IMO, this can be good news for the Bulls’ defense! After struggling in the first 2 contests to figure out defending Nene, the Bulls did a great job for G3 and held him to 5-15 FG & 5 TO’s in just 25 minutes of action (he got ejected). With Nene on the court, WAS is more a post-centric team and this fits better for CHI’s defense.

The Bulls’ are naturally desperate for this contest facing elimination and their only way to defeat the Wizards tonight is via their defense. My fair line for this contest 180, so we have the proper value for a Single Dime Play w/ Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play)  on 507/508 Under 184 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA - 509 Memphis Grizzlies @ 510 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #2

I understand that it is tough to win a Play w/ OVER in this series as 75% of the games went to OT, but even going to OT in the last game, we cashed our Under Play.

After a fast paced affair in G1 (OKC scored 32 fast break points in that game!), the last 3 contests in this series have been typical “grind out” games that are favoring the Grizzlies style of play.

However, OKC can win playing in that style and they are coming from a game in which they held MEM’s to “just” 40 points in the paint & had the edge in rebounding w/ 53.5% reb/rate%! Zach Randolph is really struggling in this series vs. Ibaka and without a proper interior domination from MEM, their offense isn’t in a good place for tonight.

The good news is that MEM’s defense has been great! They are doing a great job vs. Westbrook & Durant on the perimeter… Obviously, I don’t expect both OKC’s stars to struggle so much tonight but they’ll have to fight hard to get their points.

Besides taking the Under in here, I’ll also tease OKC & LAC for tonight. I expect MEM’s to keep struggling on the offensive end while OKC can improve a bit their offensive performance only because I don’t expect both Westbrook & Durant to struggle so heavily tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play)  on 509/510 Under 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 511 Golden State Warriors @ 512 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #3

All the mess w/ LAC’s owner really played a big factor in G4, but also the inability of Doc Rivers in adjusting to GSW’s small ball was a huge factor as well!

GSW’s defense is now more prepared to face LAC’s just because Jermaine O’Neal simply couldn’t do anything to slow down LAC’s big men. W/ Green on the lineup, GSW’s doesn’t have the proper size to hang around w/ LAC’s frontcourt but they have the speed to cause some problems…

The biggest problem in G4 was really GSW’s offense vs. LAC defense…  They were distracted and unprepared, to the tune of blowing their coverages on 70 percent of the Warriors' possessions according to Doc Rivers. I expect Doc Rivers to make some adjustments for tonight and suddenly, this series will be fun to watch just because both defenses could have the upper hand in this series.

Despite all changes, I still think that LAC is clearly the better team and being today’s G5 so important, I’m teasing LAC x OKC as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play)  on 511/512 Under 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Memphis Grizzlies @ 510 Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 511 Golden State Warriors @ 512 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #4

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play)  on 2-Team Teaser (5 Points) 510 Oklahoma City Thunder (-2) X 512 Los Angeles Clippers (-2) @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline