Wednesday, April 16, 2014

NBA Free Premium Play 04/16: Detroit Pistons @ Oklahoma City Thunder

  
Detroit  at Oklahoma City 
NBA - 509 Detroit Pistons @ 510 Oklahoma City Thunder

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I understand that we are taking some risks in taking the Under w/ DET in this season because so far, DET O/U mark in the season is 55-26 OVER (68% hitting rate!).

However, I believe that this is a good opportunity for us and we are getting an inflated line IMO. First of all, OKC needs to win to secure the #2 seed in the West but this isn’t going to be that difficult against this pathetic DET team.
Probably, Durant & Westbrook will start but I don’t expect them to play so many minutes like they did @NO (more than 40minutes!)! 

We should see a heavy dose of OKC’s bench and this is why I really the Under in here:

1) Obviously, there will be a considerable drop off in terms of offensive efficiency without Westbrook & Durant and this will help DET’s defense
2) OKC’s have some great size on the bench to matchup vs. DET’s frontcourt… Collison, Adams and even Thabeet will give some size to OKC and so, DET’s won’t punish OKC down low & boards like they are used to do.

My fair line for this contest is 208/210 points and so, I'm taking the Under in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 213 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

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