NBA Premium Card 04/19

NBA - 703 Memphis Grizzlies @ 704 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #2

In the last day of the regular season, both the Grizzlies and the Mavericks fought hard to win the game and avoid the San Antonio Spurs in the first round. Eventually, MEM won the game but honestly IMO, OKC is even a worst matchup than the Spurs for them…

I had some doubts w/ OKC especially w/ their perimeter defense but they really impressed me in two key games (vs. SAS & @LAC), so they will be “fine” for the playoffs. Nevertheless, the Grizzlies’ offense doesn’t “want” to attempt three pointers, so they won’t explore this potentially OKC defensive weakness.

MEM has been great in the L2 weeks of the regular season vs. top teams w/ wins vs. MIA, PHX & DAL. The key for those wins? Scoring 60, 50 & 58 points in the paint… However, MEM had tremendous edge down low vs. those 3 teams! The same thing won’t happen vs. OKC great interior defense!!! For some reason, Zach Randolph has really struggled vs. OKC this season w/ 23-62 FG – a subpar mark of 37%!

On the other side, I expect OKC to explore ZBO’s lack of speed via PNR’s w/ Westbrook + Durant! MEM defense is excellent but OKC will get their usual points via transition, FT’s and simply because no one can stop Durant. My fair line for this contest = OKC-10, so we have the proper edge for a Single Dime Play w/ OKC!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Oklahoma City Thunder (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 707 Golden State Warriors @ 708 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #3

Losing a key player can make all the difference in the playoffs – just look for OKC w/ Westbrook in the last season! I’m not saying that A. Bogut is as good as Westbrook, but his importance for the Warriors is truly underrated especially in a series vs. LAC!

With Bogut on the court, GSW is a bit better offensively but it is on defense that his absence will be felt! Jermaine O’Neal can’t play effectively more than 20min and I really want to see GSW playing w/ Lee and/or Speights @ center, good luck with that! I don’t think that GSW is capable of slowing down the best offense in the league, especially on the road.

On the other side, we should not forget that LAC finished the regular season being the BEST 3pts defensive team in league w/ just 33.2%! Obviously, S. Curry will get his points because he is a great shooter but LAC defense will be focused in shutting down GSW’s perimeter offense.

In this first contest, while LAC is “ready” and Doc Rivers knows exactly what to do regarding the team’s rotation, I don’t think that the same thing will happen w/ M. Jackson… The problem that the Bogut’s absence will “create” on Jackson w/ the dilemma of playing big or small will help LAC’s tonight, and so, I expect LAC to win comfortably this first contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Los Angeles Clippers (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 703 Memphis Grizzlies @ 704 Oklahoma City ThunderNBA - 707 Golden State Warriors @ 708 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #4

***TEASER PLAY***

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 5-points Teaser 704 Oklahoma City Thunder (-2) x 708 Los Angeles Clippers (-2) @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline

NBA - 701 Brooklyn Nets @ 702 Toronto Raptors

Play #1

This should be a fun series to watch w/ plenty of tight games and (hopefully) w/ game 6 and/or game 7 on the horizon.

For the first contest I really think that we have some edge w/ the Under as my fair line in here is 190/192 points.

Note that in this series, we will deal w/ half court battle. In the regular season, TOR was ranked #23 in Pace Factor & BKN = ranked #25! 3 of the 4 H2H’s games between these two teams were slow paced contests, so we can expect this trend to keep going in this series.

BKN’s offense will have some problems vs. TOR’s underrated defense! TOR is a top 10 team in not committing TO’s (ranked #9 in the regular season) and this could be a problem for a BKN defense that is great in creating TO’s and convert those TO’s w/ a pretty decent transition offense.  Also, Amir Johnson & Patrick Patterson are quick and mobile “bigs”, so BKN’s undersized lineup won’t have the usual edge that they are used to have vs. traditional frontcourt units.

On the other side, this Raptors team doesn’t have much experience @ playoffs, and this first contest could be a tough mental spot for them.  Note that we are dealing w/ a team that takes a ton of mid range jumpers…

BKN will have S. Livingston back and also K. Garnett could play some significant minutes as well – an obvious boost for their defense!

The correlation of all these factors = Single Dime Play w/ Under!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline