NBA Premium Card 04/12

NBA - 501 Sacramento Kings @ 502 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #1

NOTE: ***EARLY GAME*** (No detailed write up for this play)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Los Angeles Clippers (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 503 Milwaukee Bucks @ 504 Washington Wizards

Play #2 & #3

The Wizards were able to bounce back last night @ORL behind a strong 4th quarter. WAS had some nice transition points w/ 18 fast break points and they also dominated down low w/ 56 pts in the paint! The problem (once again) was their inability to hit outside shots – just 2-19 3pts (in L2 games = 3-34 3pts!!!). The fact that did trail the game early on didn’t help their team confidence… If not this dismal 3pts numbers, the Wizards would easily score +105 points last night.

Sooner or later they will enjoy a nice outside shooting game and IMO, this will start tonight vs. MIL’s awful perimeter defense. MIL doesn’t put much effort on defense lately – L10 games their Def. Rtg. = 116.6! Last night they allowed 27 fast break points to the Cavaliers!

Offensively, they are scoring well in L3 games w/ 98, 102 and 119 points! Sessions is now starting @PG and playing alongside w/ B. Knight – two aggressive guards that are attacking the rim @ nice rates. This helps to understand why the Bucks are averaging 52 points in the paint per game in L6 games!

I expect this contest to be a fast paced one w/ WAS finally having nice perimeter numbers while the Bucks will score their points as well, my fair line for this contest is 206/208 points! I also think that the Wizards' tendency to "relax" against lower class opponents will show up tonight, so I'm taking the Bucks as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on  Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Milwaukee Bucks (+11.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on  Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Miami Heat @ 510 Atlanta Hawks

Play #4

I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game as we are dealing w/ two tired teams and I predict this contest to be a slow pace affair between these two teams.

MIA is coming from a nice win vs. IND last night… However this is going to be their 4th game in 5 nights w/ the two previous contests being vs. IND & vs. MEM – two physical teams! IMO, in a “conscious” way, the Heat are playing @ extremely slow pace lately. This is a good way to preserve their energy and so, I just don’t think this approach will change for tonight.

On the other side, the Hawks are also coming from a nice win last night @BKN! They are struggling w/ their outside shooting as of late w/ 19-77 from 3pts in L3 games - just 24.7%! However, their defense is vastly improved lately w/ 102.3 Def. Rtg in L5 games! Their transition defense has been great as well w/ just 7.4 fast break points allowed per game L5.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes