Friday, April 25, 2014

NBA Free Premium Plays 04/25: Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets

Toronto  at Brooklyn 
NBA - 739 Toronto Raptors @ 740 Brooklyn Nets


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The first two games of this series were super strange because we are dealing with two great shooting/spot up offensive teams that completely struggled in both games to hit outside shots.

I took TOR & OVER in G2 and we’ve seen some interesting things from TOR: DeRozan bounced back pretty well from a terrible G1 and the Raptors frontcourt kept dominating down low and on the glass.

However, their problems w/ TO’s is real vs. this aggressive Nets’ defense! DeRozan & Valanciunas aren’t particular good ball handlers and they are prone to commit TO’s when pressured – something that the Nets will keep doing throughout this series.

The biggest “anomaly” for the Nets in the first 2 games was their complete inability to hit outside shots – 11-48 from 3pts land (just 23% mark!)! Note that most of those misses were wide open shots! Sooner or later, those shots will cash for them and playing at home for them has been a good sign:

BKN Reg. Season 3pts% Road: ranked #21 w/ 34.8%
BKN Reg. Season 3pts% Home: ranked #2 w/ 39.1%

For this contest, I expect the Nets to answer pretty well to the fact that they are playing at home. My fair line for this contest is BKN-8/-9 points & 195 points as both teams will start hitting outside shots.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 739/740 Over 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 740 Brooklyn Nets (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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