NBA Premium Card 04/20

NBA - 711 Charlotte Bobcats @ 712 Miami Heat

Play #1

Like the series between the Raptors and the Nets, I expect this series to be a slow paced one, played almost exclusively @ half court. MIA’s pace since March has been extremely slow while the Bobcats are as well a half court team – Pace Factor season rankings: MIA #27 & CHA #21!

Obviously, Al Jefferson is going to be a tough matchup for the Heat but CHA’s potential biggest problem is related w/ their guards! CHA’s offense relies heavily on PNR’s using Kemba Walker and this is a big problem vs. #1 defense in the league vs. PNR’s! I expect MIA’s suffocating defense vs. ball handlers to be the primary X factor on this series.

On the other end, CHA’s defense has been solid all season long – ranked #6 in the regular season! It won’t be easy for MIA to score in transition vs. this Bobcats team… not only CHA was #1 ranked team during the regular season in taking care of the ball (TO/rate% = just 12.7%), but they also were #1 in fast break points allowed per game w/ 10.2!

My fair line for this contest is 184/185 points so we have the proper edge to make a play w/ Under as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 188.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 713 Washington Wizards @ 714 Chicago Bulls

Play #4

For this contest I have a small lean w/ Over (full game) that can easily be ruined w/ a low scoring quarter particularly when the slow footed WAS 2nd unit (Miller, Al Harrigton and Gooden) gets playing time. Instead of taking OVER @full game, I’m taking OVER @ 1st quarter for some specific reasons:

In the last H2H game between these two teams, I had a play w/ CHI that simply crushed the Wizards in the first half – the 52-26 score isn’t a typo! The Wizards were passive in that first half w/ 0-8 3pts & 0-4 FT’s and no team in the league can’t score @ decent rate being passive against this Bulls’ defense! When the Wizards were aggressive, they outscored the Bulls 35-24 in the third quarter! Sure, it didn’t matter because the Bulls kept scoring well and won the game but it was a clear sign for the Wizards in this series: play passive = no chance beating the Bulls!

It all starts w/ John Wall and fortunately for us, Wall usually plays the entire first quarter! Also, let’s not forget that Boozer plays his minutes in the first & third quarter and w/ Nene starting today, the Wizards’ offense can take advantage of it early on the game!

On the other side, the Bulls’ offense using J. Noah on the post is a tough matchup for the Wizards, especially via “cuts” from their guards w/ Noah’s superior passing ability – something that the Wizards’ defense struggled all season long!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 45 FIRST QUARTER @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 709 Dallas Mavericks @ 710 San Antonio Spurs

Play #2 & #3

There is no question that the Spurs are the better team in here and will advance to the second round unless something “strange” happens.

However, for the first game of the series, I really think that R. Carlisle will surprise the Spurs w/ a proper game plan that will make the Mavs competitive today.

Plain and simple, the Mavs can’t run w/ the Spurs! In the last H2H game between these two teams, the Spurs won the game by 9 points primarily because they scored 35 fast break points! It was the Spurs’ highest mark of the regular season, so it was a clear sign for DAL and Carlisle knows that…

In the last games of the regular season, Carlisle made some interesting changes to their lineup that really worked well for them. He decided to not give big minutes to Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert because their lack of speed was hurting their defense… that’s why both players logged only 17 & 14 minutes vs. PHX and even against MEM in the last game (OT game!), they played only 27 and 11 minutes!

With both slow footed players on the court and playing major minutes, SAS will just kill the Mavs’ via PNR’s w/ Parker and their “bigs”… that’s one of the biggest reasons why the Spurs swept DAL 4-0  in the regular season!

I expect DAL to give more minutes to D. Harris and B. Wright in this series and this can be a factor for today’s game – surprise factor working favorably for DAL! DAL’s improved defense and different rotation will be their “best weapon” vs. SAS especially in this first contest and that’s why I’m taking DAL & Under in here as my Single Dime Plays!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Dallas Mavericks (+9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 715 Portland Trail Blazers @ 716 Houston Rockets

Play #5

My fair line for this contest is 218/220 points so we have some good edge w/ Over even though this is the highest line of the playoffs so far.

Plain and simple…The matchup between these two teams = high scoring affairs!

We have the Rockets being #1 in the league in vol% shots taken @ the rim vs. the team that allows their opponents to take more shots @ the rim! POR doesn’t have any answer to stop Howard & Harden… Eventually, the Blazers will have to play some small ball and speed up the tempo of the game.

 HOU’s defense has been horrible in the last few weeks! Once LMA recovered and returned to the lineup, POR had a nice Off. Rtg’s of 113.4 in the last 8 games of the regular season. HOU is a better defensive team w/ Beverly and Howard on the court but because both were out for quite some time, I think that it will take some games for HOU to be sharp defensively.

Hack-a-Howard is a possibility for tonight – we can expect a ton of FT’s for both teams because HOU just can’t stop LMA! There is some talk about Howard & Asik being playing together on the court but I really don’t expect such experiment from McHale because the Blazers would kill HOU w/ their spread offense = good news for us as well!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 215 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline