Andre Gomes Sports Handicapper: NBA Premium Card 04/02

Thursday, April 3, 2014

NBA Premium Card 04/02

NBA - 521 New Orleans Pelicans @ 522 Denver Nuggets

Play #1

This is going to be a classic game between two losing teams that won’t have much incentive to play defense.

Despite scoring only 92 points in the last game, the Nuggets actually were pretty efficient vs. MEM’s elite defense – they shot 49.3% FG and had a nice Off. Rtg. of 110.7! The problem? The game was played under MEM’s terms w/ a super slow paced factor of 84.8!

For this contest, I expect the Nuggets to dictate the pace and the game to be a run and gun affair because this is what happened in the previous 3 contests between these two teams.

The Pelicans are coming from a bad offensive performance vs. SAC in a game that A. Davis looked like a bit off sync after missing one game due to an injury. As usual, NO’s defense was atrocious as they allowed SAC to abuse them down low while dominating the boards. I expect Davis to bounce back strong in this favorable matchup vs. K. Faried.

The last H2H game ended w/ 188 points @ regulation in a game where both teams were incredibly sloppy w/ 51 total TO’s and combined to shot 12-37 3pts! Still they were able to score easy near the basket w/ 62 & 58 points. I expect both teams to score easy at the rim but w/ better overall offensive numbers, my fair line for this contest is 212 points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 507 Houston Rockets @ 508 Toronto Raptors

Play #2

As expected, the Rockets lost last night @BKN… It was really tough that T. Jones was a late scratch and Motiejunas played only 8 minutes due to foul trouble and so, HOU was completely shorthanded on the frontcourt. The good news is that Jones will play tonight…

This play would be a pure void if not the fact that K. Lowry is OUT for tonight! He is absolutely their best player and the Raptors simply won’t be the same without him – he didn’t miss a single so far in this season! J. Vasquez will start @PG and his lack of speed will be completely explored by HOU’s quick guards.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Houston Rockets ML @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 510 Orlando Magic

Play #3

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

As weird it might sound, the Cavaliers have legit chances to grab the final spot for the playoffs! They are playing really well as of late w/ their guards being super aggressive and attacking the rim off the dribble. It looks like K. Irving will play tonight so this trend surely will go on in here. The good news is that ORL’s PNR defense has been subpar all season long and I really expect CLE to explore J. Nelson’s lack of speed on the defensive end.

CLE is 3-0 vs. ORL so far in this season for some reason! ORL is making some “weird” decisions down the stretch (hello tanking) and so, this short spread line is a perfect line for us.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 509 Cleveland Cavaliers (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 503 Brooklyn Nets @ 504 New York Knicks

Play #4