NBA - 507 Dallas Mavericks @ 508 Sacramento Kings
Play #3 & #4
The good news is that Isaiah Thomas is OUT for tonight and without him, the Kings offense is simply non-existent!
SAC scored just 69 points in the last game @GSW! We all know that they don’t a good ball movement but lately it has been worse: 16.7 assists per game in L11 games! They are playing w/ rookies on the backcourt that struggles to hit outside shots and so, it makes easier for the opponents to stop them – total focus on D. Cousins!
In the last H2H game between these two teams, DAL had some problems to beat SAC as they won 103-100! The game was “set” to be a relatively low scoring game but the 4th quarter was a super high scoring one w/ 31-30 outcome.
I really don’t think that tonight, the Kings will be able to repeat that great offensive efficiency… NOTE that SAC scored 100 points but had only 17 assists… 17 assists in 42 FGM’s – 40% assist/rate%!
On the other end, I expect DAL’s offense to be more focused on the half court… After averaging 14 fast break points in the previous 7 games, DAL has scored only 2 and 4 fast break points against the Clippers and the Lakers respectively…both games were fast paced ones, so I think that DAL’s game plan was really to slow down a bit their tempo. Something that I expect to happen in here as well…
With SAC’s having so many problems on the offensive end, I expect DAL defense to be decent while offensively, they will manage better the clock and so, I’m taking both Dallas and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 200.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Dallas Mavericks (-7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 509 Denver Nuggets @ 510 Houston Rockets
Play #5
Lawson was related to the bench in the last game (he missed a team meeting) and the Nuggets’ starting lineup looked awful and got quickly outscored by the Grizzlies. Eventually, the Grizzlies were able to make a rally w/ Lawson on the court and w/ DEN’s coach using some super small ball lineups w/ Lawson + Brooks + Foye! They had some success because the Grizzlies really don’t “know” how to deal w/ such small ball teams. However, this won’t be the case tonight vs. Rockets.
After losing 3 straight games, the Rockets defeated the Thunder in the last game in a big game for them. Without Beverly, HOU doesn’t have any capable perimeter defensive player but the good news is that Lawson is OUT as well…
DEN defense has been atrocious vs. good offensive teams… they have allowed 108 and 133 points to San Antonio, 117 to OKC or 122 points to the Mavericks! Brooks & Foye will be overmatched by Harden and Lin!
With the Rockets scoring so easily, the Nuggets without Lawson don’t have the proper offensive “punch” to hang around w/ HOU on the road and so, I’m taking the Rockets tonight as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Houston Rockets (-10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 511 Memphis Grizzlies @ 512 San Antonio Spurs
Play #6
The Spurs finally lost one game @OKC, something that I was expecting b/c we have a play w/ OKC. The biggest problem for SAS was the inability of their defense in stopping OKC’s transition game – OKC finished the game with 30 FAST BREAK POINTS! It was the worst defensive mark from the Spurs in this department! The good news is that tonight, SAS will face a team that basically doesn’t want to run against them.
Unlike the first 3 contests between these two teams, MEM’s game plan will be pretty simply: “grind out style! Note that the first 3 contests were all early on the season and back then, MEM’s identity was quite different from today’s MEM “mindset”.
T. Prince is OUT for tonight and actually, this is great news for them in my opinion because it means that M. Miller and J. Johnson will get more minutes of action and both are better shooters than Prince – SAS defense just can’t “cheat” anymore on Prince’s lack of shooting range in order to pack the paint b/c especially Mike Miller will torch them from the outside.
Marc Gasol got injured in the 2nd H2H game and didn’t play in the 3rd H2H…he’s playing really well as of late and I expect him to be a tough cover for SAS’s big men!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Memphis Grizzlies (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 515 New Orleans Pelicans @ 516 Portland Trail Blazers
Play #7
NO was able to be decent on the offensive end in L3 games mostly because of their absurd number of FT’s in those 3 games: 26, 46 and 29 FT’s! POR’s usually doesn’t send their opponents to the FT very often – ranked #9 in the league in Opp. FT’s attempted per game w/ 22.3!
POR’s defense has improved a bit lately expect the fact that they couldn’t stop PHX’s 2nd unit in the last game. The good news is that the Pelicans’ are severely shorthanded so, their 2nd unit doesn’t have that much offensive power (except A. Morrow).
POR offense is lacking some consistency since LMA has returned to action so I also don’t think that we will see a “sharp” POR offensive execution in this contest as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 205.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 517 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 518 Phoenix Suns
Play #8
OKC’s perimeter defense was embarrassed by PHX’s offense as they allowed 128 points while allowing PHX to hit 15-27 behind the line! Note that OKC was completely dominating the game w/ 96-82 score w/ 3min to go @ third quarter and then Gerald Green happened…
I expect OKC to be more prepared for this contest and more importantly, PHX is not shooting well from the outside lately: 22-85 3pts in L3 contests – just 25.8%!
PHX is coming from a great win @POR but I can’t ignore the fact that their starting lineup struggled badly especially w/ their frontcourt. This can be problematic tonight vs. Durant and Ibaka!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
NBA - 503 Los Angeles Lakers @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #2
My first lean for this contest was LAL+16 as surely, the Lakers want to avenge the humiliation suffered at the hands of the Clippers in the last h2h (LAC won 142-94). However, how in the hell the Lakers’ defense will be able to slow down LAC’s attack?
P. Gasol & K. Kaman are OUT for this contest so LAL won’t have kind of interior defense…in L2 games, LAL allowed 52 and 64 points in the paint! Just have a look for DAL’s big men offensive production against them:
“Nowitzki had 27 points on 11-of-14 shooting, Brandan Wright scored a season-high 23 while going 10 of 10 from the field and former Kings center Samuel Dalembert came up with 14 points and 14 rebounds.”
LAC will score so easy in transition and near the basket that I just can’t go with the Lakers!
In that game, LAL scored “only” 94 points and this is something that I expect LAL’s to improve in here… LAL is playing @ tremendous fast pace lately! They are averaging 22.6 fast break points per game in L5 contests! Obviously, we need them to hit some three pointers but note that they are sharing the ball quite well w/ 26.8 assists per game in those 5 games!
We can expect this contest to be a crazy fast paced contest…according to my numbers, the last H2H between these two teams was the FASTEST PACED game of this season! With the Clippers scoring so easily via transition & down low and with the Lakers w/ their outside shooting, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play!
P. Gasol & K. Kaman are OUT for this contest so LAL won’t have kind of interior defense…in L2 games, LAL allowed 52 and 64 points in the paint! Just have a look for DAL’s big men offensive production against them:
“Nowitzki had 27 points on 11-of-14 shooting, Brandan Wright scored a season-high 23 while going 10 of 10 from the field and former Kings center Samuel Dalembert came up with 14 points and 14 rebounds.”
LAC will score so easy in transition and near the basket that I just can’t go with the Lakers!
In that game, LAL scored “only” 94 points and this is something that I expect LAL’s to improve in here… LAL is playing @ tremendous fast pace lately! They are averaging 22.6 fast break points per game in L5 contests! Obviously, we need them to hit some three pointers but note that they are sharing the ball quite well w/ 26.8 assists per game in those 5 games!
We can expect this contest to be a crazy fast paced contest…according to my numbers, the last H2H between these two teams was the FASTEST PACED game of this season! With the Clippers scoring so easily via transition & down low and with the Lakers w/ their outside shooting, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 224.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 501 New York Knicks @ 502 Miami Heat
Play #1
We can expect this contest to be a “brutal” half court game because both teams are playing @ ridiculous slow pace lately. The fact that this contest will be a slow paced one isn’t anything “new” because we are dealing w/ ranked #29 (NYK) and #26 (MIA) teams in terms of Pace Factor. However, both teams (especially Miami) are playing even slower lately! According to my numbers, MIA Pace Factor season number = 89.9 vs. L10 games = 84.8! You can see the difference…
Regarding the matchups… both teams aren’t particularly sharing the ball as of late… MIA is averaging just 19.9 assists per game in L7 games, while NYK = 18.2 assists/game in L5 games!
Carmelo Anthony is banged up (he looked awful in the last game vs. NYK!) and the Knicks will now face an improved MIA perimeter defense that is allowing just 31.9% from 3pts in L10 games = #2 best mark in the league behind only the Bulls!
On the other side, D. Wade is still OUT for this contest and this is some good news for NYK’s awful perimeter defense. Still, note that NYK defense has been a bit better lately, they have allowed 84, 83, 81 and 90 points in the L4 games!
The correlation between the matchups & expectation of this contest being a pure slow paced half battle = fair line = 184 points = proper edge to take the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!
Regarding the matchups… both teams aren’t particularly sharing the ball as of late… MIA is averaging just 19.9 assists per game in L7 games, while NYK = 18.2 assists/game in L5 games!
Carmelo Anthony is banged up (he looked awful in the last game vs. NYK!) and the Knicks will now face an improved MIA perimeter defense that is allowing just 31.9% from 3pts in L10 games = #2 best mark in the league behind only the Bulls!
On the other side, D. Wade is still OUT for this contest and this is some good news for NYK’s awful perimeter defense. Still, note that NYK defense has been a bit better lately, they have allowed 84, 83, 81 and 90 points in the L4 games!
The correlation between the matchups & expectation of this contest being a pure slow paced half battle = fair line = 184 points = proper edge to take the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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