NBA - 811 Houston Rockets @ 812 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected line: 199 points | Memphis by 3 points
***SINGLE DIME PLAYS***
Memphis is 0-2 and starting to be in desperation mode! For tonight, Conley will be out and so, the team may have some defensive problems, while they will be okay offensively as Memphis direct their offense to the frontcourt and Rudy Gay. The truth is that 35.6% of their shots are at the rim and Houston has been terrible at defending at that area by allowing 75% FG! Dalembert isn't still ready to play at a decent level and so, we can expect Memphis to score a lot from that area tonight. Another important area for Memphis is the 16-23 feet zone, where the Grizzlies attempt 31.6% of their shots, but they aren't shooting well from that area, as they are allowing 39% FG, so this is clearly a critical area for them. We can expect Memphis to be aggressive on pounding the rim by having a lot of free throw attempts and score a lot on the paint, as usual. Memphis has been absolutely terrible on the P&R Ball Handler with just 0.56 PPP, so without Conley on the court, they won't use this kind of play so many times, which is good news for their offense. But not everything is great for the Grizzlies offense, as I expect them to struggle in terms of continuity between their starting unit and their bench, which clearly lacks depth.
On the other side, Houston impressed me when they played on the road at Orlando and so, I took them yesterday as a 3-points home-dog against San Antonio, knowing that they would play well. The Rockets are a well-balanced team and they are a bad matchup for Memphis, as it was shown last season when Houston went 3-1 against Memphis in the head to head, even though the Grizzlies were clearly the better team out of the two. I really like Kyle Lowry (who had 16pts, 8ast and 9reb yesterday in just 27 minutes) to have a big game tonight, especially when his natural opponent Mike Conley will be out, so Lowry should be able to have a huge impact in tonight's game against his former team.
Considering how Memphis will be able to dominate the rim on the offense and how Houston is playing so well and with so much confidence on their offense as well, I expect this game to be one of those games where both offenses get the upperhand over the opponents' defenses. Therefore, I came up with a projection of 199 points for this game and so, looking at the current totals line which looks too low for me right now, I'll be taking the over in here.
I'll be also taking Houston on this contest, considering how well they are starting the season and how they are traditionally a bad matchup for the Grizzlies, especially when Memphis has been appearing so physically in poor form on this first week of the season and they will be playing without their starting PG.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811/812 Over 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5DimesPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811 Houston Rockets (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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