NBA Premium Play 12/30: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 803 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 804 Indiana Pacers

Projected line: Indiana by 13 points


Cleveland is coming from a nice win at Detroit, where they dominated the boards and the paint against the Pistons! Well,that won't happen tonight against the Pacers, as Indiana is a good rebounding team, with an opp ORR of just 23%! Even though the Cavs dominated the Pistons frontcourt, they won't be able to do the same against Indiana's tough frontcourt and so, the Cavs will need to use their exterior game more than usual, something that won't bode well with their style. Note that 40% of the shots of the Cavaliers come from the rim (hitting 60% FG%), but Indiana is a good defensive team in that area by allowing just 56% FG% in that area!

Cleveland's offense is generally better on P&R Ball Handler (1.07PPP (Points Per Possession)  & 15% volume (% of the FGA's in that play), on cuts (1.32PPP & 11% volume) and on transitions (1.42PPP & 16.3% volume), but Indiana defends well in P&R Ball Handler (0.59PPP), Cuts (0.89PPP) and in transition (0.74PPP), so I expect Cleveland to struggle offensively tonight, as the kind of plays they have generally the most success will be well defended by the Pacers. Cleveland put some good offensive numbers against Toronto and Detroit but the Pacers defense are in another level.

On the other side, Indiana has been struggling offensively at the rim (just 45% FG!!!), but Cleveland's defense in that area is just average by allowing 62.9%, having Toronto already taken advantage of that in their first game of the season. Indiana has also been struggling at shooting from 16-23 feet (24% FG), but once again Cleveland's defense won't bring them a lot of problems at this area, as they have been allowing their opponents to shoot 49% FG from that area of the court! 

Indiana has been struggling in Post Up situations, especially as Hibbert as been failing to score on this kind of plays. Statistically, Cleveland had good defensive numbers on this kind of plays on their first two games against Toronto and Detroit, however these two teams have a weak interior game! Cleveland is using Antawn Jamison at the PF position and so, we can expect an edge for David West on this area. Another area is where Indiana has been struggling is at Spot Up plays with 0.91 PPP (Points Per Possession) for a volume of 16,1%, however we can expect an upgrade from them today, as Cleveland is flat out terrible at defending this kind of plays by allowing 1.12 PPP, which is understandable considering they are slow footed in rotating and Toronto punished them on this area.

Considering how Cleveland's offense will be clearly stopped today, as Indiana can defend the kind of plays the Cavs perform better to score and how the Cavaliers will struggle in taking advantage from the problems that Indiana has on their offense due to lack of defensive quality. I expect Indiana to blow out Cleveland in this game and finally get a nice offensive outcome in this season, therefore I see value on the Pacers in here. I'll take Indiana tonight on a single dime play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 804 Indiana Pacers (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker