Projected line: Indiana by 5 points
Note: No writeup for this play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Detroit Pistons (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 707 Toronto Raptors @ 708 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected line: Toronto by 1 point
***SINGLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***
Note: No writeup for this play. Toronto is the better team right now!
Pick: 1 unit on 707 Toronto Raptors ML @ +115 / 2.15 on Bookmaker
Pick: 2 units on 707 Toronto Raptors (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 719 Los Angeles Lakers @ 720 Sacramento Kings
Projected line: LA Lakers by 6 points
Note: No detailed writeup for this play. It will happen to Sacramento the same it happened with the Lakers yesterday down the stretch. Sacramento played such sloppy basketball in the preseason with a ton of TO's and their frontcourt doesn't really impress me. They will try to push up the pace and outgun the Lakers, but that will only lead to turnovers and dumb mistakes. Everybody is jumping off the Lakers with the "b2b game" theory, but this is the first b2b of the season, come on!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719 Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 707 Toronto Raptors @ 708 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected line: 190 points
Projected line: 190 points
More than defensive struggles, I expect Cleveland to struggle offensively. They may be able to have a good offensive run, but once Byron Scott starts mixing in the rotation, the Cavs will surely have a bad looking stretch from the offense. Byron Scott is yet to find the right rotations and he has confessed that he has doubts about who should be the team's starting PG: Sessions or Irving. After the second preseason game against Detroit he said that Irving "needs to improve" on defense before he puts him on the game at the end of close ones. Eventually Irving may not be as good on defense as Sessions, but he is clearly a much better offensive player. I know it was just a "preseason game", but the starting unit of Cleveland scored just 8 points in 6:30 in the 1st quarter and 9 points in the first 6 minutes of the second half! Even if Byron Scott decides to insert Irving in the starting lineup, the Cavs will still have some moments of ugly offensive basketball.
Toronto was the worst defensive team last season, but I expect some considerable improvements on defense from last season. The reason is simply for having Dwayne Casey as head coach. Casey is a great coach and he knows how to use his players. Remember when Dallas used zone defense last year so well against some bad matchup opponents? He will surely do the same in Toronto because he knows with this roster, Toronto can't play straight man to man defense on a nightly basis! Already in this preseason, they forced Boston to two super slow scoring games and even after one of the games, Casey didn't have problems in admitting that he is clearly more focused on the defense early on:
"We're going to spend a lot of energy on the defensive end, so now we have to come back offensively and really execute and focus. It's not as easy because you've used a lot of energy. It takes a lot to play the type of defence we want to play."
"Our defence is way ahead of our offence."
Besides that, I also expect some problems in Toronto's offense for the same reason I think the same about Cleveland: rotations aren't still well defined and their bench lacks offensive power. These two teams will combine some ugly moments tonight. Therefore, I still great value on the under and I'll take it on a top play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 711 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 712 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected line: 212 points
We saw yesterday a dominating version of Oklahoma City, where the athleticism of their players was just too much for Orlando to handle. I was expecting such physical domination from OKC, but I also referred that Orlando was still a great defensive team, especially in three factors: defensive rebounding, points in the paint allowed and fast break points allowed. The truth is that even with OKC's upperhand in the game, they grabbed just 7 off boards, scored just 32 points in the paint and scored 9 fast break points, while they only attempted 26 free throws! So, Orlando was able to handle Oklahoma City's well oiled offensive machine! But Minnesota won't be able to do such thing...
With coach Adelman running the show, we can expect Minnesota to be a fast paced team in the same way Houston was last season, as the Timberwolves have a roster that adapts quite well to this kind of style. They weren't a good defensive team last season and they won't be a any top defensive team this season, especially early on the season and OKC will explore these struggles, especially with their players attacking the rim, as there is no Howard in Minnesota. However, at the same time, I expect good things from the Timberwolves offense! They have some deep talent and they are a quite unorthodox team! I believe not even OKC knows how Minnesota will play offensively tonight, as they have PF's who can shoot treys well, a super short PG (Barea) who can dribble very well underneath the basket and so on. Besides that, Minnesota has an excellent second unit who isn't any worse than their starting lineup, with Ricky Rubio, JJ Barea and Derrick Williams ready to make some damage on offense! Curiously, the same thing happens with OKC and actually yesterday against Orlando, it was the Thunder bench who created a gap in the score with Maynor, Harden, Cook, Collison and Mohammed! So, in this game, we can expect good offensive continuity from both teams, something that will help us in winning our play on the over in this game.
I expect this game to be a fast paced game with both teams scoring in transition and that's why I'm taking the over in here, as I have this contest to go above the 210 points mark on my projections.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 713 Denver Nuggets @ 714 Dallas Mavericks
Projected line: PK line
***SINGLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***
Projected line: PK line
***SINGLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***
I'm sorry, what? Dallas losing twice in a row at home at the start of their title defense? Yes, that sounds quite possible and even probable in my view. Denver offers one of the worst matchups that Dallas can face, especially because they offer a similar matchup to the one Dallas faced yesterday against Miami. And we all saw what happened yesterday. I was absolutely right when I mentioned Dallas' poor physical condition in my writeup yesterday. They look very poorly in physical terms and they got absolutely slaughtered by the athleticism of Miami. The Heat scored 44 points in the paint and 31 fast break points, while they attempted 36 free throws, a clear sign of how physically dominated the Mavs were yesterday.
Now Dallas is facing Denver, a team whose roster is good physical form, with some of their players having even played oversees before the NBA season. The roster has a lot of depth and they play at a super athletic style, they push up the pace and attack the rim. Dallas is now without Tyson Chandler and without his help defense, they will struggle again like they did against Miami, with Denver being likely to have an edge in offensive boards, fast break points and points in the paint.
Even though Denver isn't obvious as good as Miami, the truth is that their electrifying way of playing will make the slow footed Mavs struggle big time tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Nuggets to cause the upset in this game.
Pick: 1 unit on 713 Denver Nuggets ML @ +160 / 2.60 on Bookmaker
Pick: 2 units on 713 Denver Nuggets (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 715 Memphis Grizzlies @ 716 San Antonio Spurs
Projected line: San Antonio by 9 points
Another rematch from the playoffs last season and even though Memphis looked really dominant against San Antonio in the postseason last year, I believe the Spurs have now the right tools to get revenge over the Grizzlies in style tonight. First of all, the Spurs are now healthy, unlike they were in the postseason. Duncan has lost weight and he is looking better physically than in the past few years, Ginobili is back at 100% and Parker is in good form, as he showed this summer when he dominated the Eurobasket. McDyess has retired, but the Spurs have other options for the center position, especially with DeJuan Blair. So, I don't think Memphis will be able to dominate down low like they did in the playoffs, especially considering the problems they are currently dealing with right now.
While the Spurs are better physically than they were in the playoffs, Memphis is clearly looking much worse. They looked dreadful in the preseason games against the Hornets and they look far from their best physical condition right now. We all know how their depth is short, especially on the frontcourt, and with Marc Gasol struggling with back problems, Memphis is into some serious problems tonight, as Dante Cunningham is their only half-decent frontcourt player in the bench! The Grizzlies are really looking out of form right now and their head coach has confessed exactly that:
“Our conditioning is not where it needs to be and we just have to improve our work ethic as we move forward and our focus to where we can get to be a good team. We are not a very good team right now.”
Last season the Grizzlies were the best team in creating turnovers to their opponents. They beat the Spurs because they took advantage of an injured Ginobili and they were able to put a lot of pressure on the Spurs backcourt. But in their two preseason games, the exact opposite happened with Memphis committing 21 and 22 turnovers!!! Even though the team has continuity on the roster from last season, remember that they lost their big man backourt Darrell Arthur in a season-ending injury, their backup PG was traded and their key backup SF Shane Battier went to Miami via free agency. They need now to re-insert Rudy Gay in the system again and Marc Gasol was banged up and played zero minutes in the preseason. It seems just too many things for Lionel Hollins to fix against a well oiled team.
So, we will basically have a well-prepared veteran team playing with revenge on their minds against a struggling team who had a messy off-season, with the re-signing of Marc Gasol and a trade that saw one of their backup PG's, Greivis Vasquez, being traded to New Orleans. Therefore, I expect a very good win for the Spurs tonight over a team they want to beat badly.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 San Antonio Spurs (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 721 Philadelphia 76ers @ 722 Portland Trailblazers
Projected line: Portland by 7 points
Projected line: Portland by 7 points
In normal conditions, I wouldn't think that Portland is good enough to believe that they should be a 7 points favourite against a team like Philadelphia. However, I believe we have a mismatch working for Portland and the Blazers will simply take advantage of that. I'll talk about that mismatch later.
In fact, I like Philadelphia for this season. They are a well coached team, with early chemistry and well defined rotations. Their perimeter defense is great and they have some depth that will help them during a tough season. However, in order for them to be efficient especially on offense, they need Elton Brand at 100% in order to have a minimally acceptable interior game and remove some pressure from the backcourt, as Iguodala, Holiday and Turner are good players but they are also inconsistent shooters.
The problem that I saw in Philadelphia in their two preseason games against Washington is that I don't think Elton Brand is ready to go for this season. He's clearly not at 100% and besides him in the frontcourt, the Sixers have center Spencer Hawes, rookie big man Nikola Vucevic and forward Thaddeus Young, with none of them being a threat downlow. Without Brand in good form, there will be a lot of pressure on the Sixers backcourt to score and as they aren't good shooters, Philadelphia is primed to jack bad contested shots, especially when Louis Williams will be on the court.
So, Portland is clearly a bad matchup for Philadelphia. The Sixers may have a good and athletic backcourt, but Portland owns an even more athletic backcourt with Wallace, Batum, Felton and Matthews, who will cause the Sixers perimeter players to struggle while looking for good spots to shoot the ball. I watched a preseason game of Portland and the Trailblazers are one of the teams with advanced team chemistry and their starting unit is really a great unit. They might have some problems with their depth as the season goes by, but for this game such problems won't exist. LeMarcus Aldridge played just one preseason game and he may look a bit rusty, but unlike Brand, Aldridge has such a vast offensive arsenal that he doesn't need to be at 100% to perform decently.
Portland may eventually have some defensive problems during this season against powerful frontcourts, however that's not the case of the Sixers, who present a poor frontcourt unit. Portland's building will be rocking tonight and I expect a good win for them. I have the Trailblazers at -7 for tonight, so we have some value on them. Take Portland in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Portland Trailblazers (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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