NBA Free Premium Play 12/30: Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Bobcats

Orlando   at Charlotte

NBA - 801 Orlando Magic @ 802 Charlotte Bobcats Projected line: 180 points Orlando easily defeated the Nets at home yesterday, but the truth is that they had a poor rotation if you ask me, as 4 players were on the field for more than 33 minutes and with them having tired legs and being so dependent from 3pts (29% of their shots are treys!), I think it will be very tough for Orlando to have a good offensive game tonight. Hedo played yesterday 37 minutes, Anderson played 33 minutes, Howard 37 minutes and J-Rich 33 minutes. Two of these four players, Hedo and J-Rich, are especially inconsistent and prone to have bad games on bad spots: Hedo shot 39.2% FG on b2b games last season, while J-Rich shot 42,4% FG, well below their season averages! To make things even more worse for Orlando's offense, Nelson is questionable for tonight and so, they'll especially need Howard and their 3pts shooters to have any kind of efficiency on their offense tonight. The problem is that Charlotte has been a good perimeter defensive team for now, as they have just allowed 39% eFG behind the arc (with a volume of 25%)! The Magic are also a team who likes to use Spot Up plays on their offense, however they are just averaging 0.99 PPP (Points Per Possession) and tonight with tired legs, I expect them to struggle, especially when Charlotte had acceptable numbers on their first two games in defending this kind of plays with 0.93 PPP! Orlando is also a team who runs a big number of P&R plays, but with their PG questionable, I expect them to be shaky tonight on this area. There is also the Howard factor vs Charlotte, but the Bobcats will surely send multiple bodies to hold him and send him to the FT line, where he continues to struggle! On the other side, the key of Charlotte's offense in their first two games has been on their huge domination on the boards, with a ORR rate of 35.05%! With dead legs or not, Orlando will always be a great defensive rebounding team thanks to Howard and therefore, Charlotte will need to be efficient on their shooting or they will have problems to score, as Orlando with Howard will be very tough to allow points on the interior game, while the Bobcats continue having a very inconsistent offensive game on the outside. Charlotte may have had a decent offensive game against Miami who was on a b2b spot, but while the Heat decided to play a wide open fast paced game, Orlando will try to play with their natural pace with no rushes just for Howard to be able to dominate down low. So, I expect both teams to have problems in scoring tonight. I came up with a totals projection of 180 points and so, I'll take the under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker