NBA - 701 Indiana Pacers @ 702 Toronto Raptors
Projected line: PK line | 187 points
***SINGLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***
Everybody is talking about how Indiana will be a great team this season and they will fight for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, but I doubt about their quality at least in terms of doing so well in the Eastern conference. The main reason for my doubts is that their offensive struggles remain the same from last season. Already in their first game of the season against Detroit, even though they obtained a blowout win, they didn't dominate the game via offense. In fact, Indiana and Detroit had the same shooting percentages - 36% FG! However, the Pacers dominate the boards with an off reb rate of 36.7% vs 20.5% from Detroit and committed less turnovers than the Pistons. This was a win of effort and not talent, however I watched the game and Indiana had an unexpected edge: the Pistons best big man Greg Monroe got early involved in foul trouble and played just 22 minutes. Without Monrow on court, the Pistons are a team with a frontcourt too light to handle against Indiana. Ben Wallace is just too old, while Jonas Jerebko and Jason Maxiell lack the rebounding skills to go head to head with Roy Hibbert, David West or Tyler Hansbrough and so the Pistons were clearly outrebounded.
On the other side, Toronto is coming from a nice road win against the Cavaliers, in a game where I took them on the moneyline! I know they were facing the dreadful Cavs, but Dwayne Casey is a really good head coach and I saw a great team help defense from the Raptors in that game. Last season any opponent could score against Toronto near the basket, but in the game against Cleveland, the Cavs went just 16-31 FG at the rim - just 51.7% FG! Casey is building a new identity in Toronto and he has already warned his players that if they don't buy his philosophy, they won't play. Tonight against Indiana, they will be tested again and I expect a good response from them. In respect of the Raptors offense, I would say that they are currently more reliable down the stretch than the Pacers. Toronto dished 35 assists vs Cleveland from their 42 FG made! Jose Calderon was outstanding on their job of managing the team and he made the right decisions most of the time. In a potential ballgame scenario for today, I like the Raptors chances with Calderon running the show. Without the presence of a star, Toronto has a well balanced offense with 7 players having scored double digits points in Cleveland.
For this contest we have Toronto being a 4 points underdog. This is their home opening and in front of a large crowd, I expect a big effort from them, at least as big as the Pacers effort for this contest. I project the Raptors having the same chances as Indiana of winning this game and so, I'll take Toronto in here. I lost my double dime play on the under in the Cavaliers/Raptors game because the Cavs defense in that game was absolutely pathetic. Indiana is a much better defensive team than Cleveland and so, I've projected a line of 187 points for this contest. So, I'll be taking the under in here as well.
Pick: 1 unit on 702 Toronto Raptors ML @ +145 / 2.45 on Bookmaker
Pick: 2 units on 702 Toronto Raptors (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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