NBA - 507 Orlando Magic @ 508 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected line: 193
Projected line: 193
In this preseason, I saw some players of ORL in a very poor physical form and that's the main motive for the reason why I didn't take ORL+8 today, as on the other side, the Thunder seems to be already in phenomenal physical shape, especially Kendrick Perkins, so my projected line went from OKC -4/-5 to OKC -7/-8, so no side play for me on this game.
However, I do like the Under and I would play it until a 193 points line.
Even though we are just beginning a new season, both teams maintain the same style from last season. Orlando will be playing with their perimeter players and Dwight Howard down low and they need badly their 3pts shooter to hit their shots. When one team is able to defend 1*1 against Howard without being crushed, then the Magic perimeter players have extra pressure to score points. We saw the Atlanta Hawks employ this strategy last season in the playoffs and for today’s game the Thunder have Kendrick Perkins. If you remember Perkins’ days in Boston, then you remember Perkins has always been a tough matchup for Howard. Well, Perkins is now in his best physical condition ever (you will be surprised of how “thin” he is now) and so OKC will defend Howard 1*1. When I mentioned that I saw some Magic players far from their best shape, I was not talking about Howard, I was really talking about some of their perimeter players and I expect the Magic to struggle on the offensive end because OKC won't double team Howard and those perimeter players will see their shots being contested.
On the other side, the Magic will be as usual a good defensive team especially near the basket – we can call it “the Dwight Howard factor”! Orlando last season was the best team in defending in the paint with just 35.4 points per game allowed; they were the best team in preventing fast breaks with 10.7 FB points per game allowed; and finally they were the best defensive team in the league allowing just 23.1% offensive boards to their opponents.
I didn't randomly mention these three defensive stats. OKC is a top 10 offensive in three three stats! Traditionally, OKC loves to attack the paint from multiple angles and if the can't score or find space to score, they look for FT's and this is the main reason why they are one of the teams in the league with more FT attempts per game over the last few years. In my opinion, ORL will limit this way of playing from OKC today.
Last season, both games between these two teams were high scoring affairs, but I remember that they were played in two very specific days: in the first one both teams were playing in back to back games and in the second, OKC was playing their 3rd game in 4 days, so today’s game spot has to do with the spot of last season's games between these two teams.
Therefore, I will be taking the under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 196.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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