Wednesday, December 28, 2011

NBA 12/27 Recap: Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat


Boston, please don’t run against Miami!!!

Pace H2H games between Miami and Boston since last season:

Last Night
Regular S. LY
Playoffs LY
Pace
Pace
Pace
100.0
84.7
88.8
87.1
86.2
89.3
81.0
87.8
85.2
86.2



Can you see the obvious difference? Yesterday's game had a ridiculously high pace of 100.0 - the fastest paced game of the whole season until now!  For people like me who expected Boston to do everything to slow down the pace and try to play halfcourt game vs Miami, we were completely ridiculed because the Celtics did exactly the opposite and Boston simply couldn't keep up with the young lions of the Heat at the end. 




Now analysing the 4 factors:

4 Factors
EFG%
TOR
ORR
FTR
0.6
22.25
11.11
29.17
0.6
18.12
20
33.33

With such a high pace, it's normal for more turnovers to happen than usual, but the truth is that Miami by committing fewer turnovers than Boston (20 vs. 24) managed to take advantage of that as they had 33 points off turnovers vs. 19 points from Boston! Besides this, there was also a clear domination from Miami in terms of FT's attempts with a 35-27 edge!

Miami offense Shot Locs:

At Rim
3-9 Feet
10-15 Feet
16-23 Feet
Threes
FGM
FGA
eFG%
FGM
FGA
eFG%
FGM
FGA
eFG%
FGM
FGA
eFG%
FGM
FGA
eFG%
21
30
70.0%
5
8
62.5%
1
8
12.5%
9
19
47.4%
6
10
90.0%

Boston offense Shot Locs:

At Rim
3-9 Feet
10-15 Feet
16-23 Feet
Threes
FGM
FGA
eFG%
FGM
FGA
eFG%
FGM
FGA
eFG%
FGM
FGA
eFG%
FGM
FGA
eFG%
9
16
56.3%
4
10
40.0%
4
10
40.0%
8
17
47.1%
12
19
94.8%


The most impressive about Boston is that they only tried 16 FG's at the rim and 10 FG from 3-9 feet vs. 17 FG from 16-23 feet and 19 3pts attempts! Miami's interior defense is really great with their devastating help defense and the Celtics didn't even try to pound Miami near the basket. What resulted for Boston was their great efficiency on their exterior game with 47.1% FG from 16-23 feet and 12-19 in 3pts shots! If with these numbers Boston couldn't still be competitive against the Heat, then they will barely have chances to win 1 game out of 10 vs. Miami playing at such high pace!

On the other side, Miami was able to be even more solid than they were against Dallas in their season debut, something remarkable considering how well they had already performed in the NBA Finals rematch. They massacred the rim once again with 21-30 FG - 70%, but they did also quite well from the outside, with 9-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-10 in treys.

Paul Pierce's absence was obviously a big factor for Boston, as his presence would give more offensive power to the Celtics, but in my opinion, Doc Rivers can't and won't play at such high pace in the remaining games against Miami this season, I'm almost 100% sure of that!

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