Projected line: PK Line | 198 points
***SINGLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***
The Spurs may have the edge of being a more experienced team and their team chemistry may have been built for a few years ago, but right now the Clippers aren't a worse team than the Spurs, as down the stretch CP3 will make some magic, as he generally does against the Spurs. San Antonio is coming from a nice win against Memphis, but they showed some problems in the frontcourt. Duncan and Blair were in early foul trouble and the team was completely dependent from their 3pts shooting during the game, where they shot 10-33 behind the arc and their shot% distribution was bizarre:
| %Rim | %Short | %Mid | %Long | %3P |
| 0.33 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.38 |
For today, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will be a tough matchup for the Spurs, so once again this will be a dangerous game for the Spurs. They managed to beat Memphis by 13 points, even though they shot 39.8% FG vs 46.6% FG from Memphis. The difference between the two teams was the huge number of turnovers that Memphis committed (25) for an absurd TO/rate% of 25,5% - one fourth of Memphis' ball possessions resulted in turnovers! Now the key question: will the Clippers commit such errors in ball handling? Well, considering they have Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul in the backcourt, the obvious reason is no. In their first game of the season, LAC committed just 10 turnovers at Golden State, who has an aggressive defense in pressuring the ball handler. Note that Golden State forced 20 turnovers off Chicago in their following game! So, considering LAC won't commit the same errors that MEM committed against the Spurs, I believe they will have a great chance of winning this game. In the matchups, I consider Richard Jefferson to be practically equivalent to Caron Butler, while Chris Paul isn't surely worse than Tony Parker. SAS has an advantage in the SG duel, as Ginobili is bigger than Billups, but Ginobili isn't surely a player who loves to post up down low, so Billups will be fine.
LAC is still a work in progress project, but as they have CP3 now, they automatically have early team chemistry because CP3 knows how to read a defense and make the best decisions down the stretch. The Spurs would have problems in stopping the Grizzlies offense if it wasn't for their turnovers issues, so I believe LAC will get their share of scoring today. I also think that SAS will score their points, as LAC is yet to be an elite perimeter defensive team and the Spurs will hurt them from the outside. This game won't be played at a very fast pace, but it will be well played overall. I have the Clippers with a 50% chance of winning this game and so, I'll take them in here. I also have a projected totals line of 198 points and so, I'll take the over in here as well.
Pick: 1 unit on 713 Los Angeles Clippers ML @ +160 / 2.60 on Bookmaker
Pick: 2 units on 713 Los Angeles Clippers (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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