Thursday, December 29, 2011

NBA Free Premium 12/29: Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers


  

Denver at Portland

NBA - 503 Denver Nuggets @ 504 Portland Trailblazers

Projected line: 198 Points

Denver is 2-0 this season with two easy wins where we took them in both occasions. They scored 115 and 117 points against Dallas and Utah respectively and their offense simply took advantage of their opponents' struggles that they won't find this time against Portland. If you want to be competitive against Denver, it's necessary in to be in good physical form, as the Nuggets have a deep rotation and errors can't be made, especially turnovers and the team can't be full of lazy asses to get back into defense or Denver will kill their opponent with fast breaks. That's exactly what happened against Dallas and Utah, where the Denver averaged 23,5 fast break points per game, while scoring 40 and 68 points in the paint! Yesterday, everything was so easy for Denver that they were able to shot 29-40 FG at the rim! 40 FG attempts so close to the basket! But today, everything will be different against Portland.

The Trailblazers are a similar team to Denver in terms of physical shape and I have also actually took them in their first two games of the season as well. On the offensive end, Portland doesn't commit errors, as shown in their first two games where they just committed 10 and 12 turnovers! So, it will be much harder for Denver to create turnovers this time. On the other side, Portland has good defensive wing players who are very fast in their defensive transitions, something Dallas and Utah couldn't do. Denver isn't a good team in the perimeter in the offensive end and without their easy shots in transitions, I expect the Nuggets to struggle offensively for the first time this season. On the other side, Portland lacks a good bench in terms of offense and they have been having some problems in scoring from the outside, just like the Nuggets. We can expect this game to be a fast paced one, but with both teams struggling to score. Therefore, I'll be taking the under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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