NBA Free Play 12/25: Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks

Miami   at Dallas

NBA - 503 Miami Heat @ 504 Dallas Mavericks Projected line: Miami by 8 points On a first approach, this line of -4.5 points in favor of Miami is completely irrational, as the NBA champions will host the team that they have just defeated in the finals in 6 games a few months ago. If we add the so called home factor advantage, Dallas by no means should have been the underdogs, especially for a range bigger than one full ball possession. However, I have the Heat to win comfortably this game and I would play them on a max line of 6 points in this contest. Why I’m so high in Miami in this contest can be factored in 3 different areas: 1) Motivational standpoint This is the classic revenge factor where one team wants to avenge the loss suffered in the biggest stage a couple of months before. In theory the team that has lost works hard in the preseason with the feeling of winning it all, while the winner gets a bit cocky and relaxed. It might sound a bit square, but the truth is that we have some data backing up the Heat in this exact spot (Finals re-match game match game in the first day of the season): In the last 6 games on this spot, the Finals loser has gone 5-1 SU and 3-0-3 ATS and in the last 30 years, The Finals loser as an Away team is 10-5-3 ATS. 2) Physical factor I’ve watched almost all preseason games and clearly the Heat are one of the teams in better physical condition for this beginning of the season! They simply ran over the Magic in both games of the preaseason! In the first game, Miami scored 22 fast break points and Orlando uses to be one of the best defensive teams in preventing transition teams in the league and in the second game, the Heat attempted 53 Free throws as the Magic couldn’t match Miami’s athleticism in attacking the basket. On the other side, I remember reading an interview from Dirk Nowitzki where he said that he relaxed too much on vacation and this recent statement confirms exactly this: “I’m fine, nothing hurts,’’ Nowitzki said. “The wind will come back, but it’s definitely better than what it was two weeks ago when we started camp. I actually wasn’t joking about the amnesty thing two weeks ago. That’s how bad I looked. It’s been some hard work the last two weeks, but I’m still obviously not 100 percent.’’ Jason Terry played only 9 minutes in the preaseason, Jason Kidd just 18 minutes and Vince Carter 20 minutes! It’s curious to notice that the Mavericks were dominated by OKC in the preseason in the same way that the Heat torched ORL's defense: in one game DAL allowed OKC to attempt 41 FT’s and in the other game OKC had 21 FB points! To put it simply we are talking about one young team that is completely ready to start the season against a veteran team that is far from the best condition and in normal conditions, Dallas will burn out in this contest, 3) Matchups factor This is the biggest reason why I'm high in Miami in here. In the finals, Tyson Chandler was the Mavericks quarterback of the defense, as his great help defending skills helped the Mavericks dynamic defense to rotate well and give James and Wade bad looks over the series. Replacing Chandler with Haywood brings a brutal change, as Haywood is nowhere near as good as a help defender as Chandler is. In fact, Haywood was completely outplayed by Perkins in the preseason games against OKC! Lamar Odom will must likely have major minutes and he can defend better after rotating, but he is a new face in the Mavs system and so, it will take some time to Odom to gel with the rest of the roster. Also DeShawn Stevenson is now in New Jersey and he was so important to stop the Heat dynamic duo that midway the series, coach Rick Carlisle decided to send Stevenson to the bench so at least Marion or Stevenson would be on the court to hold James and Wade. To replace him, the Mavs have now Vince Carter and Dallas is waiting for him to have the same defensive role that Stevenson used to have, then good luck for them as they'll need it... So, basically Dallas won't be able to defend Miami as well as they did in the Finals. On an offensive standpoint, Dallas will score their points as they still have a good ball movement and great shooters, but the defensive drop off will be just too much to overcome. In my opinion, the combination of these three factors makes me believe that we have enough value in Miami to take them in this match and therefore, I'll take them on a single dime play as my first play of the season. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Miami Heat (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker