Projected Line: 190 points
Indiana will play their third game in four nights, while Denver will play their second game of a road trip tonight. This won't be an easy game for Denver, as Indiana is #1 on rebounding, #1 on paint defense and #5 on rim defense! The Nuggets' attempt 40% of their shots at the rim, so either they shoot extremely well from the outside today or they will struggle a lot on offense tonight, as they will struggle to score down low, while they will also problems in grabbing offensive rebounds tonight to score second chance points. Denver has also a high volume of transition plays with 16%, but Indiana is also #1 on transition defense, so this is another area where Denver will struggle on offense tonight. So, the Nuggets will struggle on their interior offense tonight and things won't be easier for them on the perimeter, where they're weaker than on the inside plus the Pacers also have a good perimeter defense. Therefore, the Nuggets are into a very tough game on offense tonight.
Indiana will play their third game in four nights, while Denver will play their second game of a road trip tonight. This won't be an easy game for Denver, as Indiana is #1 on rebounding, #1 on paint defense and #5 on rim defense! The Nuggets' attempt 40% of their shots at the rim, so either they shoot extremely well from the outside today or they will struggle a lot on offense tonight, as they will struggle to score down low, while they will also problems in grabbing offensive rebounds tonight to score second chance points. Denver has also a high volume of transition plays with 16%, but Indiana is also #1 on transition defense, so this is another area where Denver will struggle on offense tonight. So, the Nuggets will struggle on their interior offense tonight and things won't be easier for them on the perimeter, where they're weaker than on the inside plus the Pacers also have a good perimeter defense. Therefore, the Nuggets are into a very tough game on offense tonight.
Indiana bases their offense a lot on their post up plays, where they have a 18% volume on these plays. They also like to run and score in transition, while they aren't that good on the outside shooting. Basically, they are like the Nuggets. Denver has normally a good interior defense, but Atlanta pounded them with 26-30 FG at the rim on their last game. However, Atlanta shot just 4-10 FG on post ups and this is just a poor game from a normally good interior defense of the Nuggets. They should bounce back tonight, especially because Kostas Koufos didn't play at Atlanta and he is probable for tonight.
The Pacers have been improving their ball handling, while they are last in the league in forcing turnovers, so I don't believe there will be a lot of fast break points scored tonight. I see both defenses getting the upperhand over the offenses on this contest, turning this game into a surprising low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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