NBA - 703 Atlanta Hawks @ 704 Orlando Magic
Projected Line: 193 points
***TOP PLAY***
Atlanta is coming from a loss at Miami, where the Heat comfortably won, but they had to shoot 60% FG for that! With the Heat struggling on their 3pts defense, Atlanta was very prone in attempting 3pts shots and they ended with 9-28 3pts, while shooting 13-17 FG at the rim! The problem for the Hawks in this game was that they couldn't score in transition with just 4 fast break points and 2-7 FG on transitions. On the other hand, Miami dominated from everywhere, with Dwayne Wade shooting 11-13 FG and Lebron James 10-16 FG!
The Hawks will now play at Orlando today. The Magic had 2 days of rest for this game, after a long road trip. Atlanta will definitely use their small lineup against the undersized Magic. Orlando is a bit turnover prone (#20 in TO rate) and they are #13 on transition defense, but they have been defending worse lately. This gives Atlanta a good spot for tonight on offense, in order to bounce back from their poor transition game at Miami. Josh Smith and Al Horford should pound Glen Davis and Nikola Vucevic on offense and give the Hawks a great offensive game in here.
On the other hand, Orlando's offense faded away a bit at the end of their road trip, with offensive ratings of 92.23, 86.07 and 108.69 on their last three games. Jameer Nelson was one of the main culprits for this offensive fading, as he had 1-7 FG, 3 assists and 3 turnovers at Phoenix, on their last game of the road trip. Orlando's offense is good on pick and rolls, cuts and post ups, with Atlanta being just #13 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #19 on post ups defense and #27 on cuts defense, so Orlando has a good offensive matchup in here as well.
The first game of this series went clearly Under the total posted, but Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick weren't physically at 100% and that made Orlando struggle on offense in that game. That won't happen today and with this good offensive matchup for both teams, I expect this game to be a high scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 186.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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